UFC · resolved market
Hwang vs. McCorry
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e88ff97213b13cafeaf9a7452c5b0a5c3192b3d0b749503f48286cf7091b2a3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- McCorryof Hwang, McCorry
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,137
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,137 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed McCorry | 52c | 5,854$3,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,824.1 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…4cd8backed Hwang | 31c | 3,728$1,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2f…cff5backed McCorry | 63c | 2,852$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…0f2abacked Hwang | 39c | 2,785$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,086.85 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…dc03backed Hwang | 47c | 2,413$1,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,123.74 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d8…012abacked Hwang | 40c | 2,243$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.16 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed McCorry | 67c | 1,648$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.85 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed McCorry | 65c | 1,500$970 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.99 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1e…65c1backed McCorry | 68c | 1,478$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.29 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked McCorry | 66c | 1,060$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.6 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked McCorry | 65c | 985.78$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.84 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed McCorry | 60c | 823.85$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.11 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked McCorry | 57c | 700$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed McCorry | 58c | 657.47$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.43 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked McCorry | 67c | 624.17$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.08 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb123…0a15backed McCorry | 65c | 600$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed McCorry | 68c | 596$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb6…4330backed Hwang | 45c | 530.57$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b8…d54cbacked Hwang | 41c | 505.62$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.08 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c50…7403backed Hwang | 34c | 446.31$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.59 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed McCorry | 61c | 424$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.56 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Hwang | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…23ddbacked Hwang | 20c | 399.98$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a55…be00backed Hwang | 40c | 377.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed McCorry | 66c | 367.73$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.74 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked McCorry | 69c | 290.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…d50dbacked McCorry | 69c | 289.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Hwang | 38c | 249.99$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked Hwang | 43c | 232.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Hwang | 35c | 223.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.14 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Hwang | 49c | 223$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 54cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe366…2fe1backed Hwang | 35c | 205.11$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Hwang | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211a…9613backed Hwang | 30c | 199.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.99 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…351dbacked Hwang | 31c | 183.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 120 | 55.8%67 W · 53 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76a…f9e0backed Hwang | 43c | 182.3$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Hwang | 33c | 180$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd74…b2c0backed Hwang | 39c | 170$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…d66cbacked Hwang | 42c | 169.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Hwang | 35c | 155.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.05 | 377 | 54.6%206 W · 171 L | +19.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked McCorry | 65c | 153.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed6c…d0bbbacked Hwang | 40c | 117.65$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.06 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Hwang | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked McCorry | 65c | 99.98$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Hwang | 46c | 85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…5eb2backed Hwang | 35c | 56.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…293dbacked Hwang | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…d82abacked Hwang | 45c | 52.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…b938backed Hwang | 35c | 36.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hwang | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecea…889abacked Hwang | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hwang vs. McCorrythis page
- Aly vs. BaraniewskiBaraniewski won
- Gantt vs. LivingstonGantt won
- Lee vs. SosaSosa won
- Uchegbu vs. ChovancekChovancek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.