UFC · resolved market
Aly vs. Baraniewski
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa56f1a219b821491084802719b680f7277ecd72c3b74548a21a93942a15eded2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baraniewskiof Aly, Baraniewski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Baraniewski | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,340 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Aly | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,340 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c0…722ebacked Aly | 64c | 773.78$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.22 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Baraniewski | 30c | 704.23$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.96 | 178 | 51.7%92 W · 86 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Baraniewski | 36c | 694.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.44 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40a6…d50dbacked Aly | 70c | 552.86$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Baraniewski | 31c | 550$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.5 | 378 | 54.8%207 W · 171 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1499…4effbacked Baraniewski | 45c | 518.47$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.73 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Aly | 68c | 514.5$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.15 | 367 | 55.3%203 W · 164 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7f…4cd8backed Aly | 72c | 445.14$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Aly | 62c | 353.57$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.93 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Aly | 69c | 300$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Baraniewski | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Baraniewski | 30c | 184.29$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Aly | 67c | 164.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.53 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Aly | 71c | 150$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Aly | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 299 | 48.8%146 W · 153 L | -9.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked Aly | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Aly | 50c | 120.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Baraniewski | 30c | 114.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.15 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Aly | 66c | 91.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Baraniewski | 35c | 64.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.88 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Baraniewski | 34c | 61.76$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Baraniewski | 36c | 58.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Baraniewski | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Baraniewski | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Aly | 66c | 28.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…5eb2backed Aly | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aly vs. Baraniewskithis page
- Gantt vs. LivingstonGantt won
- Hwang vs. McCorryMcCorry won
- Lee vs. SosaSosa won
- Uchegbu vs. ChovancekChovancek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.