UFC · resolved market
Lee vs. Sosa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x321d8d7ce410ee9bcb5a92d26e3490e685816a362a38b910b4531dae7a14c865
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sosaof Lee, Sosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,853
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,853 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Lee | 50c | 2,265$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.67 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Lee | 54c | 555.56$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Sosa | 48c | 519.15$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.15 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Sosa | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Sosa | 50c | 228.2$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.1 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Sosa | 42c | 221.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.66 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Lee | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | -9.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0c…04cbbacked Lee | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2201…9071backed Lee | 19c | 183.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Lee | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbba…d41ebacked Lee | 60c | 165.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.35per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x465b…41c3backed Sosa | 44c | 160$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.6 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8a…64b7backed Sosa | 43c | 151$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.07 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Sosa | 50c | 103.34$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.67 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Lee | 56c | 102.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 248 | 47.2%117 W · 131 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Sosa | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 136 | 50%68 W · 68 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Sosa | 46c | 95.45$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.45 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…66a7backed Sosa | 55c | 90.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…8f05backed Lee | 54c | 79.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.69 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Sosa | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…8a04backed Sosa | 46c | 74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.96 | 60 | 36.7%22 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Lee | 40c | 61.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8715backed Sosa | 49c | 37.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…5eb2backed Lee | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Sosa | 49c | 30.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22c7…ca3ebacked Lee | 56c | 29.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749e…8626backed Lee | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lee vs. Sosathis page
- Aly vs. BaraniewskiBaraniewski won
- Gantt vs. LivingstonGantt won
- Hwang vs. McCorryMcCorry won
- Uchegbu vs. ChovancekChovancek won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.