South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcc2a50e042bde27067af58af95e7bea9468264549eb77b7430dd5854da1d42f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,740
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 40c | 2,379$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$940.24 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…21cbbacked Yes | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 29cpaid | +192.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 50c | 1,990$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994.85 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 69c | 951.43$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.15 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 47c | 842.2$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.6 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 41c | 731.69$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.7 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 12c | 600.35$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.77 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Yes | 65c | 532.66$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 37c | 509.6$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.05 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…04b5backed Yes | 49c | 500.7$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.53 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 69c | 367.21$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.56 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc57f…cfffbacked Yes | 74c | 354.82$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 30c | 319.33$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.53 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2f…4520backed Yes | 59c | 312.71$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.21 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…c264backed Yes | 32c | 306.98$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.08 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 59c | 258.82$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.71 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 12c | 236.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.38 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…289ebacked Yes | 47c | 212.94$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.19 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 30c | 196.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 23c | 159.6$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.56 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 32c | 149.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.92 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…e2b8backed Yes | 15c | 116.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 27c | 109.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 18c | 108.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.01 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 49c | 105.46$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 168 | 42.9%72 W · 96 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 42c | 99.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.16 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…9e23backed Yes | 33c | 98.89$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 13c | 94.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.46 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…36ddbacked Yes | 38c | 88.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6134…98b0backed Yes | 13c | 80.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.63 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1c…0144backed Yes | 34c | 69.93$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 79c | 64.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 59c | 55.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 67c | 54.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 46.69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 80c | 30.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 824 | 34.5%284 W · 540 L | -17.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44d5…1a5bbacked No | 78c | 25.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 76c | 24.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed No | 74c | 20.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Bolívar vs. Deportivo La Guaira FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-04-14?No won
- Will Deportivo La Guaira FC win on 2026-04-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.