TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Team Phantasma vs Eintracht Spandau (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group H

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Eintracht Spandauof Team Phantasma, Eintracht Spandau
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,651 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Phantasma8c4,097$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.811,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6aa0…b8a3backed Eintracht Spandau80c2,201$1,754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.951080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8586…8207backed Team Phantasma22c2,100$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4283…fbd4backed Team Phantasma24c1,668$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.5945041.1%185 W · 265 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Team Phantasma21c1,190$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.1722336.8%82 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Eintracht Spandau79c1,079$851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.6444743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e32…ab65backed Team Phantasma21c1,051$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.682,15653.2%1,148 W · 1,008 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Phantasma21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2103345.5%15 W · 18 L+8.1wins+0.25per pick21cpaid+158.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Team Phantasma20c999.99$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Eintracht Spandau78c937.51$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.9166843%287 W · 381 L-29.8wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Phantasma20c782.46$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.781,22448.3%591 W · 633 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Team Phantasma24c722.18$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.6828240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f9f…fdfcbacked Eintracht Spandau79c703.2$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.6727851.8%144 W · 134 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Team Phantasma32c699.99$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22476953.4%411 W · 358 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Team Phantasma14c645$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.7267931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Eintracht Spandau73c630.58$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.832,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Eintracht Spandau79c547$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.8715056%84 W · 66 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Eintracht Spandau78c518.94$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.652,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa26b…b267backed Eintracht Spandau78c500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x970a…6b89backed Eintracht Spandau77c477.96$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9341347.7%197 W · 216 L+23.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed Eintracht Spandau78c462.98$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.8664443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Eintracht Spandau68c441.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1823253.4%124 W · 108 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Team Phantasma20c401.94$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.0332941%135 W · 194 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Phantasma22c400$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8840237.8%152 W · 250 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf592…b62dbacked Eintracht Spandau76c394.74$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.7468557.5%394 W · 291 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Phantasma6c386.98$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.973,13133.8%1,058 W · 2,073 L-150.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Phantasma23c363.38$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.831,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23c0…77babacked Eintracht Spandau80c350.18$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.181145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07b…6dfbbacked Eintracht Spandau78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$663100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c1f…2289backed Eintracht Spandau78c300$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Team Phantasma21c299.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Team Phantasma11c282.32$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.114231%44 W · 98 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-37.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f5f…d393backed Eintracht Spandau79c252.13$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.136035%21 W · 39 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-23.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde53…e5bebacked Team Phantasma22c250$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5592450.9%470 W · 454 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4b1…4fdbbacked Eintracht Spandau78c250$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d20…ca2abacked Team Phantasma19c237.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0113935.3%49 W · 90 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Team Phantasma11c232$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.321,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Eintracht Spandau79c201$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.2161143.5%266 W · 345 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Eintracht Spandau77c183.18$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.91,36837.7%516 W · 852 L-6.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd3f…44f1backed Eintracht Spandau79c181.01$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0120249%99 W · 103 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Team Phantasma17c166.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.041,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x07dd…0876backed Team Phantasma24c155$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.828033.8%27 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1de6…0b70backed Eintracht Spandau75c150.25$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.943855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+32.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x897d…bddebacked Eintracht Spandau78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc4f…2a37backed Eintracht Spandau78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1551…1ff8backed Eintracht Spandau78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5562…3b41backed Team Phantasma27c150$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.415749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204d…1d52backed Eintracht Spandau78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+29%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41b8…180bbacked Eintracht Spandau78c150$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x581d…2b06backed Team Phantasma21c142.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3048035.4%170 W · 310 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Eintracht Spandau78c136.91$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.851,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd989…dcbabacked Eintracht Spandau79c129$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.0916863.7%107 W · 61 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Team Phantasma8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022234.7%77 W · 145 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e7…174fbacked Team Phantasma13c119.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-43.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f6d…3070backed Team Phantasma14c118$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6213126%34 W · 97 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-47.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x68c4…bd0ebacked Team Phantasma22c116$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5936…10b5backed Team Phantasma22c115$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2aa8…31afbacked Team Phantasma22c113.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-48.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Phantasma13c113.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.161,05823.5%249 W · 809 L-75.8wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6288…5b5abacked Eintracht Spandau76c106.45$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.552176.2%16 W · 5 L+4.8wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+115%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x03a8…715bbacked Team Phantasma22c103$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a78…e93fbacked Team Phantasma22c102$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf304…f665backed Team Phantasma22c102$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb9f…36dfbacked Team Phantasma23c100.87$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2358649.8%292 W · 294 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b38…4d61backed Team Phantasma23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2327248.9%133 W · 139 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8acc…1047backed Team Phantasma10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-53.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a72…9b68backed Team Phantasma22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ab4…468cbacked Team Phantasma22c94$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb429…8bebbacked Team Phantasma22c92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdee…f571backed Team Phantasma22c92$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Team Phantasma22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207833.3%26 W · 52 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Team Phantasma12c89.22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.446627.3%18 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Team Phantasma27c82$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9326940.5%109 W · 160 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd572…5510backed Eintracht Spandau79c81.01$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.017147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Phantasma22c79.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.441,64344.4%730 W · 913 L-42.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11ab…f911backed Team Phantasma30c78.31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.684555.6%25 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c3…2149backed Eintracht Spandau78c76.46$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.466741.8%28 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5192…df62backed Team Phantasma20c74.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.992030%6 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-57.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x53fc…76d7backed Eintracht Spandau71c73$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.171643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed Team Phantasma21c65$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6558042.4%246 W · 334 L+0.8wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Phantasma22c61.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.371,83117.1%313 W · 1,518 L-236.0wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-46%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x34c5…db89backed Eintracht Spandau79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.611959.7%71 W · 48 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Eintracht Spandau79c60$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0caa…b2bdbacked Eintracht Spandau80c60$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.220556.6%116 W · 89 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Phantasma23c56.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.141,92435.9%691 W · 1,233 L-97.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6538…e311backed Eintracht Spandau78c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x701f…9b8fbacked Eintracht Spandau78c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.223046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Team Phantasma21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.530545.2%138 W · 167 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…65bbbacked Eintracht Spandau79c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Team Phantasma21c49.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.514846.6%69 W · 79 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked Eintracht Spandau77c46.85$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6882161%501 W · 320 L+1.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e9…932ebacked Eintracht Spandau78c46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe36d…8739backed Eintracht Spandau78c44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5450…9920backed Eintracht Spandau79c44$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e6…5f63backed Eintracht Spandau78c41$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0694…25b1backed Eintracht Spandau79c39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-36.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d18…3d29backed Eintracht Spandau79c37.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.9724845.2%112 W · 136 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8fa0…6e12backed Eintracht Spandau78c36$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…dd14backed Eintracht Spandau78c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.72100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…9c9cbacked Eintracht Spandau78c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.