CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdce68c979b4fa42f396474f59a72c0275453927d71d90e7bd74120a6868aa72c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Vitalityof Vitality, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Vitality | 44c | 1,534$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.14 | 659 | 46.9%309 W · 350 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked MOUZ | 56c | 892.42$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.04 | 5,095 | 55.1%2,805 W · 2,290 L | +119.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked MOUZ | 56c | 600.93$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.18 | 1,523 | 51.5%785 W · 738 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Vitality | 44c | 579.55$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.55 | 601 | 43.1%259 W · 342 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Vitality | 44c | 555$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.8 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed MOUZ | 56c | 477.93$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.64 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c27…97c2backed Vitality | 44c | 397$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.32 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Vitality | 49c | 370.96$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.89 | 2,365 | 45.4%1,074 W · 1,291 L | -58.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…511ebacked MOUZ | 50c | 223$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.5 | 399 | 44.1%176 W · 223 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d8…a577backed Vitality | 44c | 182.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked MOUZ | 50c | 169.63$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked Vitality | 44c | 127.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.67 | 216 | 53.2%115 W · 101 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed MOUZ | 56c | 102.77$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.3 | 500 | 51.4%257 W · 243 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1476…e7dbbacked Vitality | 48c | 62.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe803…b60ebacked MOUZ | 53c | 49.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.21 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97a8…13a5backed Vitality | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed MOUZ | 56c | 32.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 347 | 50.7%176 W · 171 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Vitality | 45c | 31.24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 762 | 48.4%369 W · 393 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Vitality | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked MOUZ | 55c | 26.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 491 | 49.9%245 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed MOUZ | 48c | 20.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 773 | 46.1%356 W · 417 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Vitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 WinnerVitality won
- Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 WinnerMOUZ won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)MOUZ won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs MOUZ (+3.5)Vitality won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5)MOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.