TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MOUZof Vitality, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$546,408
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$607,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $546,408 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 581 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcf60…a6f5backed Vitality58c50,000$29,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,112.1650054.4%272 W · 228 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ45c47,997$21,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,272.261,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked Vitality77c39,627$30,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,336.1838358.7%225 W · 158 L-7.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked MOUZ23c14,882$3,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,459.2723145.9%106 W · 125 L-7.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid+0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3df…9945backed MOUZ25c13,523$3,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,133.2515155%83 W · 68 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Vitality76c12,920$9,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,805.2946149.9%230 W · 231 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked MOUZ49c12,472$6,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,327.4883652.5%439 W · 397 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ45c11,606$5,183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,422.771,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed MOUZ75c11,286$8,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,786.2133359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e4…bf9dbacked Vitality45c10,841$4,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,926.6612956.6%73 W · 56 L+7.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67ac…edf1backed Vitality69c10,722$7,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,375.6112353.7%66 W · 57 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ53c10,323$5,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,866.0781843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Vitality58c9,750$5,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,65525555.3%141 W · 114 L+1.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ41c8,000$3,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,73088746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ46c8,000$3,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,312.61,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96f7…d6aebacked MOUZ34c7,837$2,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,148.6922129.9%66 W · 155 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked MOUZ24c7,558$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,719.7830726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Vitality75c7,387$5,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,530.5464852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MOUZ57c6,893$3,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.241,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1032…c372backed Vitality50c6,200$3,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1007157.7%41 W · 30 L+8.6wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb57d…07bfbacked Vitality38c5,841$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,20014037.9%53 W · 87 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+13.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb84…5fb5backed MOUZ24c5,818$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,421.671540%6 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…0eb4backed Vitality75c5,309$3,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,970.9737157.7%214 W · 157 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ50c5,160$2,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,590.657,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed MOUZ24c5,012$1,203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,808.7423243.5%101 W · 131 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae5e…13bebacked Vitality75c5,000$3,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,75020248.5%98 W · 104 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Vitality58c4,918$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.3815053.3%80 W · 70 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed MOUZ40c4,425$1,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,661.885,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed MOUZ24c4,167$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,166.6717554.9%96 W · 79 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Vitality64c4,159$2,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,659.8545646.9%214 W · 242 L-1.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73f4…158ebacked Vitality73c4,110$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004546.7%21 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x003b…ace5backed MOUZ23c4,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.992157.1%12 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+73.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8400…274cbacked Vitality76c3,947$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0005658.9%33 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc70b…d2f2backed MOUZ24c3,833$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,913.286552.3%34 W · 31 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d2b…afc5backed MOUZ43c3,737$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.3219659.2%116 W · 80 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked Vitality65c3,716$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40027751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked MOUZ25c3,709$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,781.929855.1%54 W · 44 L+8.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+27.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked MOUZ24c3,692$896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,796.181,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ52c3,560$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,711.9687047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a96…4e13backed Vitality75c3,500$2,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,62522358.7%131 W · 92 L+11.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd599…bf55backed Vitality40c3,399$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3517439.2%29 W · 45 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed MOUZ47c3,327$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,755.371,08854.2%590 W · 498 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MOUZ41c3,126$1,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,831.161,77959.1%1,052 W · 727 L+104.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2d8…f6b6backed MOUZ23c3,044$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,343.692642.3%11 W · 15 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+53.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd752…85d4backed Vitality43c3,000$1,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,302.4836837.5%138 W · 230 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked MOUZ25c2,970$753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.532542.2%137 W · 188 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Vitality63c2,931$1,851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,850.7614947.7%71 W · 78 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aa0…e20fbacked Vitality39c2,774$1,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.54045%18 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-20.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed MOUZ24c2,605$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.864552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed MOUZ50c2,500$1,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,25078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b96…4389backed Vitality76c2,500$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,899.9937557.3%215 W · 160 L-16.4wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed MOUZ25c2,370$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,777.3517737.3%66 W · 111 L-16.0wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe6f…8887backed Vitality71c2,222$1,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,577.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ51c2,170$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.032,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x568d…87d0backed MOUZ23c2,150$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,655.528943.6%126 W · 163 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd32f…1496backed MOUZ54c2,144$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$990.0112759.1%75 W · 52 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked MOUZ23c2,118$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.311,15748.2%558 W · 599 L+3.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed Vitality76c2,039$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5501,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed MOUZ29c2,015$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.472,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ45c2,000$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.972,62247.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L-33.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ24c2,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,519.991,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked MOUZ40c1,991$796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.72,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09ea…5943backed MOUZ29c1,961$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,398.873360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c93…33d5backed MOUZ37c1,944$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.8848437.6%182 W · 302 L+13.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+42%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc790…85b1backed MOUZ25c1,927$482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,445.433938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed Vitality29c1,890$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.6141716.5%69 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Vitality72c1,878$1,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,352.155257.7%30 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed MOUZ24c1,795$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.0317538.3%67 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Vitality57c1,741$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00081751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked Vitality57c1,710$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.981,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9700…798fbacked Vitality77c1,687$1,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,299.2712852.3%67 W · 61 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48de…95babacked Vitality60c1,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014744.2%65 W · 82 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Vitality60c1,600$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96050846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Vitality60c1,600$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.9951252.3%268 W · 244 L+16.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed MOUZ58c1,529$892 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.338868.3%265 W · 123 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick62cpaid+3.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5903…d02bbacked Vitality30c1,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4505230.8%16 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick37cpaid+18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34d5…e0c1backed Vitality62c1,478$915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$914.7836555.9%204 W · 161 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked MOUZ51c1,417$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.4819351.3%99 W · 94 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f4adbacked Vitality71c1,403$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019047.9%91 W · 99 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7da…43d9backed Vitality77c1,400$1,078 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07827156.1%152 W · 119 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Vitality51c1,394$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.926854.4%37 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x851a…de17backed MOUZ45c1,350$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.249826.5%26 W · 72 L-8.9wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-51.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe0a7…9631backed MOUZ37c1,334$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$843.14837.5%3 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Vitality76c1,294$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.6427452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e3…706fbacked Vitality79c1,269$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7217967.6%121 W · 58 L+0.5wins0.00per pick67cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a64…3c0abacked MOUZ24c1,250$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9502850%14 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Vitality77c1,219$938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$938.517850%89 W · 89 L-0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x530c…89f1backed Vitality74c1,211$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.249250%46 W · 46 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x479b…cdb1backed Vitality38c1,200$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4561855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+12.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1d9…5333backed MOUZ50c1,200$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.9813253.8%71 W · 61 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed MOUZ28c1,194$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.8948240%193 W · 289 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed MOUZ42c1,174$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.1313655.9%76 W · 60 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x177e…c244backed MOUZ30c1,114$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.1916633.7%56 W · 110 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked MOUZ38c1,110$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.440253.7%216 W · 186 L+25.1wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7b4a…3b84backed MOUZ24c1,100$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.9714042.1%59 W · 81 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed Vitality50c1,075$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.52751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa76e…f812backed Vitality52c1,030$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.75446.3%25 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d8…1ce9backed Vitality51c1,026$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.96752.2%35 W · 32 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5e…f9c4backed Vitality50c1,011$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.416546.2%30 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee80…f34ebacked Vitality77c1,010$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.735460.7%215 W · 139 L+10.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.