NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdce7379f2eb16c0031fedc7f4d1c12ba60b6ab7240c786643f1e81852f771347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa115…6c5abacked Over | 74c | 7,360$5,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…8f64backed Under | 27c | 2,320$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.4 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked Under | 26c | 2,165$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.9 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under | 25c | 1,857$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.51 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a2…1d43backed Under | 3c | 1,695$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Under | 26c | 866$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.16 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 631.93$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.58 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 28c | 251.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 30c | 229.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 21c | 105.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 77c | 103.22$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…62bebacked Under | 30c | 98.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 15c | 94.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 24c | 67.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.95 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 76c | 58.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…1c01backed Over | 74c | 56.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 23c | 51.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.99 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x529c…053ebacked Over | 22c | 51.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 69c | 45.56$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…ed84backed Over | 73c | 43.42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 67c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 76c | 41.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.17 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Over | 69c | 40.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…fffdbacked Over | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe17e…98ecbacked Under | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.28per pick | 74cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 63c | 28.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 185 | 57.8%107 W · 78 L | +16.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5this page
- Capitals vs. Golden KnightsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.