NHL · resolved market
Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0efb800aeda0ec1f951a7e13c134fabebc715ac58f55e702519755275b2dde3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,451
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,999
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,451 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 1,785$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.55 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…3038backed Over | 56c | 1,225$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.08 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 708.8$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.8 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 55c | 682.03$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.29 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Under | 45c | 622.24$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.01 | 367 | 48%176 W · 191 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…91adbacked Over | 77c | 521.97$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4923…6866backed Under | 45c | 440$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 55c | 400$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…1d07backed Under | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 204 | 44.6%91 W · 113 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 55c | 236.36$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.36 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 230.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa10e…4ea1backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Over | 55c | 208$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d2…312fbacked Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 179.96$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.61 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Under | 10c | 138.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 55c | 130$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 183 | 44.8%82 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 30c | 128.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 33c | 121.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 58c | 116.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Under | 46c | 112$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.52 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…d662backed Under | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Under | 49c | 100.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.51 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 924 | 44.5%411 W · 513 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 94.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Under | 51c | 73.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked Under | 45c | 71.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 55c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 55c | 56.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Over | 55c | 54.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 74c | 54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f1…705cbacked Over | 55c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Under | 53c | 43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Over | 54c | 41.64$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.16 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 152 | 48%73 W · 79 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 55c | 38.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 44c | 38.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Over | 55c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf98…a5c3backed Under | 44c | 32.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Under | 46c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 41c | 31.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 54c | 26.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5this page
- Capitals vs. Golden KnightsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Capitals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.