NHL · resolved market
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc85449107db3d40dcd4746fdc470eb68c8d04fb2783610986249fd77ea5e95cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Capitalsof Golden Knights, Capitals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,054
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Golden Knights | 1c | 2,946$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +195.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Golden Knights | 18c | 706.25$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.37 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Golden Knights | 35c | 537.47$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.08 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Golden Knights | 48c | 346.2$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.02 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Capitals | 80c | 317.54$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.51 | 159 | 49.7%79 W · 80 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Capitals | 52c | 299.98$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.47 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Golden Knights | 26c | 231.72$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Golden Knights | 37c | 161.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.85 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5919…95acbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 156$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.16 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Capitals | 49c | 154.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.37 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Golden Knights | 32c | 145.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…919cbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Capitals | 65c | 138.14$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.35 | 305 | 49.2%150 W · 155 L | -14.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Golden Knights | 22c | 129.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Capitals | 64c | 129.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.63 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Capitals | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Golden Knights | 19c | 119.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673b…62dbbacked Golden Knights | 36c | 112$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Golden Knights | 43c | 87.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Capitals | 66c | 77.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Golden Knights | 34c | 73.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Golden Knights | 51c | 71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Golden Knights | 47c | 69.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.89 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Capitals | 65c | 64.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.78 | 154 | 44.8%69 W · 85 L | -11.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Golden Knights | 35c | 61.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 337 | 45.7%154 W · 183 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Golden Knights | 35c | 58.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 132 | 53%70 W · 62 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Golden Knights | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Capitals | 65c | 53.85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Golden Knights | 47c | 53.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Capitals | 66c | 47.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Golden Knights | 35c | 46.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Capitals | 66c | 45.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Golden Knights | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Capitals | 64c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Capitals | 65c | 32.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac57…8105backed Golden Knights | 49c | 30.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Capitals | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Capitals | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Capitals | 65c | 28.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Golden Knights | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63f6…5b6cbacked Capitals | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Golden Knights | 36c | 27.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Capitals | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Capitals | 60c | 20.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 174 | 56.3%98 W · 76 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Capitals | 74c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdf…b8a0backed Capitals | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)this page
- Capitals vs. Golden KnightsCapitals won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 4.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Over won
- Capitals vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.