Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcecca01b47ed6c774d1ad3b65410a2f56d23b986892b2d04499ccdc356c53f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,157
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,157 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 53c | 1,042$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.52 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 69c | 849.25$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 30c | 792.91$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.91 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 70c | 733.06$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 702.41$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 624.14$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.84 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 33c | 617.84$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.62 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 59c | 507.78$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.19 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 21c | 467.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.18 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked Yes | 43c | 456.78$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.78 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 25c | 403.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.48 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 46c | 385.48$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.53 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 384.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 13c | 340$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 337.87$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 330.64$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 56c | 276.66$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 262$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 77c | 228$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.18 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 25c | 180.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.72 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 180$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 176$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.94 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 76c | 172.53$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 54c | 165.49$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.97 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 51c | 164.41$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd967…a266backed Yes | 20c | 140.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 49c | 125.47$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 71c | 120.59$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.62 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 78c | 116.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 50c | 113.04$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 27c | 111.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.41 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 77c | 110.91$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.38 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 110.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 77c | 110.09$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e22…3061backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 385 | 15.6%60 W · 325 L | +15.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 98.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 90.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…f4eabacked No | 70c | 88.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 27c | 86.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 83.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 64c | 80.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 28c | 73.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.45 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 73.78$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 32c | 72.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 63c | 71.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 57c | 68.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 67.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 19c | 66.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.44 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 65.82$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 64c | 64.47$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 37c | 60.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 59.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 72c | 58.11$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 69c | 57.18$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.46 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 44c | 57.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 49c | 55.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 47c | 54.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…a3debacked Yes | 77c | 53.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 53c | 52.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 68c | 52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 58c | 51.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…f288backed Yes | 49c | 50.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 54c | 47.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 45.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 43.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 72c | 42.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 42.43$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 78c | 41.42$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 39.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 37c | 37.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 71c | 35.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 72c | 34.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 32c | 34.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 76c | 32.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 32.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…6599backed Yes | 51c | 30.93$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…f180backed No | 60c | 30.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…ead3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fd…e7dcbacked Yes | 50c | 29.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 76c | 28.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 27.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes | 75c | 26.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 41c | 25.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 44c | 25.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 74c | 23.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 54c | 22.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 77c | 22.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 20.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 73c | 20.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.