Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfca35a5f002282efaec4773ee2df169e3336ed173ff2caa1401933426426806
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 46c | 1,755$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…671dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,060$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 54c | 826.03$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.07 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 51c | 762.5$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.43 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 45c | 637.36$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 616.47$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.25 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 49c | 597.83$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.79 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 474.89$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe241…5b42backed No | 55c | 454.54$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.54 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd967…a266backed Yes | 46c | 435$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +150.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 32c | 430.14$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.65 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 373.02$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.02 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 53c | 361.46$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.66 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed No | 72c | 342.84$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 40c | 329.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.43 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 58c | 325$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.62 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 50c | 313.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.35 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 52c | 271.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.73 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 64c | 269.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.48 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 269.44$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…f180backed Yes | 63c | 255.03$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.27 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 47c | 245.76$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 53c | 235.56$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 47c | 232.46$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 226.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.6 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 210.61$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.62 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 50c | 187.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.45 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666b…eedebacked Yes | 70c | 183.21$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 56c | 175.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.07 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 49c | 172.52$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 63c | 140$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 70c | 140$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…381abacked Yes | 44c | 136.49$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 125$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 50c | 118.8$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.43 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 42c | 117.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 49c | 115$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.34 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 52c | 112.72$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…9cc4backed Yes | 71c | 111.11$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.74 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 58c | 103.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 98.56$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.58 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 49c | 85.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 84.46$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 50c | 83.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 74.03$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 44c | 74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 47c | 68.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 44c | 62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.86 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 51c | 61.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 37c | 61.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 58.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 27c | 56.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 28c | 55.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.16 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb15…9483backed Yes | 58c | 53.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 59c | 51.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 57c | 50.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 48c | 49.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 56c | 49.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 60c | 48.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.75 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 44c | 48.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 52c | 47.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 45c | 47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…ddbebacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 57c | 46.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 72c | 46.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 58c | 45.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 69c | 43.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 68c | 43.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 70c | 42.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 55c | 42.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 44c | 41.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 62c | 41.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 52c | 40.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 55c | 39.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 51c | 38.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 43c | 38.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 66c | 37.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked Yes | 50c | 37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 55c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 64c | 36.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb0…4346backed Yes | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 48.4%77 W · 82 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 59c | 33.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…f51ebacked Yes | 48c | 33.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 32.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…d3b7backed Yes | 51c | 32.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.