Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe0f92d527ca2bb513a3d53bab40f2c5a33d22a605af711b407b3626077cf3c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 28c | 1,221$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 20c | 871.2$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 16c | 639.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.46 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 575.26$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.24 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 34c | 560.44$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.47 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 79c | 550.07$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.22 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 15c | 447.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.73 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 9c | 445.41$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…465dbacked Yes | 28c | 345.23$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 341.81$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 312.64$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.05 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 31c | 311.1$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.73 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 299$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 76c | 271.97$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 75c | 260.86$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 77c | 260.25$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.91 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 218.7$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 187.48$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 77c | 174.98$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 158.37$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.27 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 33c | 150.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 73c | 146.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 79c | 138.94$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 21c | 137.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 128.12$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 126$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.49 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 64c | 121.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 113.74$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.98 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 79c | 108.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa754…ec4bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 27c | 99.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…17abbacked Yes | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f9…9ab0backed Yes | 28c | 85.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 138 | 38.4%53 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb55…ff0fbacked Yes | 19c | 78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 155 | 29%45 W · 110 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 77.59$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 20c | 76.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 68.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 18c | 68.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 27c | 63.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 23c | 61.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 55.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 20c | 54.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 20c | 54.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 22c | 49.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 75c | 46.13$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 76c | 43.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 42.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 76c | 37.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 71c | 35.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 75c | 32.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 80c | 31.93$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 31.34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 29.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 78c | 28.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 79c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 74c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 74c | 16.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 16.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.17 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 80c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on August 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on August 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.