MLB · resolved market

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd08a86a4e834904e0a298ec604f8aa1e8855ce2d2f90424884690f1561f2a21

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: New York Metsof New York Mets, Colorado Rockies
Resolved: May 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $9,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,497 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf405…9df2backed New York Mets	70c	2,130$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$629.54	250	66.4%166 W · 84 L	-7.4wins	-0.03per pick	69cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed New York Mets	46c	2,129$979 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,149.5	865	48.7%421 W · 444 L	-8.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Colorado Rockies	29c	1,960$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.67	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Colorado Rockies	54c	1,285$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693.89	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Colorado Rockies	54c	1,123$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.75	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Colorado Rockies	54c	500$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	550	52.4%288 W · 262 L	+5.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed New York Mets	46c	494.68$228 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.13	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81b0…858cbacked Colorado Rockies	55c	454.55$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	205	52.7%108 W · 97 L	+12.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+12.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x13e1…7e55backed Colorado Rockies	57c	351.38$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.01	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	63cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Colorado Rockies	30c	301$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.14	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets	66c	256.37$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.7	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked New York Mets	45c	235.47$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.51	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked New York Mets	44c	234.78$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.3	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked New York Mets	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	1,000	52.4%524 W · 476 L	+5.7wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Colorado Rockies	54c	185.19$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	308	44.2%136 W · 172 L	-10.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed New York Mets	46c	152.17$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.17	664	48.2%320 W · 344 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed New York Mets	46c	132.5$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.55	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed New York Mets	46c	130.43$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.43	481	50.7%244 W · 237 L	-19.3wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Colorado Rockies	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	885	49.7%440 W · 445 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe132…ca8dbacked Colorado Rockies	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets	45c	99.99$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.99	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x068c…582ebacked Colorado Rockies	55c	90.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	384	55.2%212 W · 172 L	+9.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed New York Mets	46c	90$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.6	1,661	43.5%722 W · 939 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Colorado Rockies	50c	77.17$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.36	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed New York Mets	46c	76.09$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.09	486	51%248 W · 238 L	-18.0wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets	62c	75.14$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.37	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Colorado Rockies	50c	75.02$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.69	268	53.4%143 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Colorado Rockies	55c	74$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.7	478	48.5%232 W · 246 L	-15.3wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c4b…839fbacked Colorado Rockies	68c	73.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	66cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Colorado Rockies	55c	72.73$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	93	46.2%43 W · 50 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies	55c	70.91$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	466	59.7%278 W · 188 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	59cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Colorado Rockies	23c	67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.73	2,545	45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L	-73.6wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84bb…25d3backed Colorado Rockies	37c	65.27$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.35	128	46.1%59 W · 69 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Colorado Rockies	21c	55$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.77	5,786	43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L	-192.2wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed New York Mets	46c	54.35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.35	263	51.3%135 W · 128 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked New York Mets	46c	54$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.16	213	53.5%114 W · 99 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…3d27backed Colorado Rockies	24c	50$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	51	43.1%22 W · 29 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed New York Mets	45c	50$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	1,498	45.3%678 W · 820 L	-8.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e20…b34dbacked Colorado Rockies	44c	47.14$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.97	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.9wins	-0.48per pick	48cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked New York Mets	46c	43.48$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.48	274	52.6%144 W · 130 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Colorado Rockies	55c	40$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	241	52.7%127 W · 114 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Colorado Rockies	52c	38.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Colorado Rockies	55c	35$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	721	54.2%391 W · 330 L	+20.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+144.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Colorado Rockies	58c	34.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	330	51.8%171 W · 159 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9427…d62abacked Colorado Rockies	66c	33.84$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.35	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8499…950dbacked New York Mets	46c	32.17$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.37	99	45.5%45 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45dd…7b56backed New York Mets	41c	30$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.7	162	42.6%69 W · 93 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked New York Mets	44c	27.45$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	1,843	43.6%804 W · 1,039 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Colorado Rockies	55c	27.27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	91	46.2%42 W · 49 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7a6bbacked New York Mets	42c	25.88$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.09	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies	55c	25.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	899	50.6%455 W · 444 L	-24.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Colorado Rockies	55c	18.35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	143	53.1%76 W · 67 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed New York Mets	71c	18.08$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.24	383	52.2%200 W · 183 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)this page
New York Mets vs. Colorado RockiesNew York Mets won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 5.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 6.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Under won
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Colorado RockiesNo won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event