TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Miami Open, Qualification: Liam Draxl vs Jay Clarke

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liam Draxlof Liam Draxl, Jay Clarke
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,212

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,212 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 180 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc49f…9e05backed Liam Draxl68c10,035$6,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,233.6412147.1%57 W · 64 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33c9…6f9abacked Liam Draxl72c7,551$5,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.2293055.8%519 W · 411 L+23.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jay Clarke14c6,912$940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.162,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Jay Clarke32c5,206$1,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,640.0776140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3846…9742backed Jay Clarke32c4,791$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.043366.7%22 W · 11 L+3.9wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Liam Draxl69c4,535$3,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,408.541,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x237e…a5f0backed Jay Clarke11c4,039$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.3119938.2%76 W · 123 L+7.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80ef…3973backed Jay Clarke1c3,713$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.09260%0 W · 26 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Jay Clarke32c3,113$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99618237.9%69 W · 113 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Jay Clarke32c2,847$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.291,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a73…e1adbacked Jay Clarke28c2,592$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72615826.6%42 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dca…72a5backed Liam Draxl66c2,219$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.2720847.1%98 W · 110 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5886…fe3bbacked Jay Clarke2c2,177$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.54273.7%1 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Jay Clarke30c1,920$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.191,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jay Clarke32c1,789$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.693,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f18…c9fdbacked Jay Clarke32c1,669$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5349949.5%49 W · 50 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Jay Clarke3c1,524$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2411826.3%31 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71f9…16fbbacked Liam Draxl68c1,506$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.088855.7%49 W · 39 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ce0…6599backed Jay Clarke4c1,500$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60260%0 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Jay Clarke16c1,496$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.3744038.4%169 W · 271 L-27.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Jay Clarke35c1,366$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.363,87135%1,353 W · 2,518 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0979…fc8abacked Jay Clarke1c1,269$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.694124.4%10 W · 31 L+6.0wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+36.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xecfa…3c6fbacked Jay Clarke32c1,200$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38746932%150 W · 319 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Jay Clarke31c1,125$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.8756757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Liam Draxl72c1,038$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.6816743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Jay Clarke35c1,014$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.951,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ec…759fbacked Jay Clarke3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30630%0 W · 63 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked Jay Clarke2c1,000$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161389.4%13 W · 125 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Jay Clarke25c997.31$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.549,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ce2…4b11backed Jay Clarke12c958.16$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.84027.5%11 W · 29 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x354f…3091backed Liam Draxl69c882.76$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.32850%14 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Liam Draxl64c881$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.364,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3697…e574backed Liam Draxl61c768$468 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.527252.8%38 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Jay Clarke25c759.97$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.621450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+19.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Jay Clarke33c750$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461,88235.5%669 W · 1,213 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Liam Draxl71c729.74$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.7465651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Jay Clarke33c674.31$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.847,81650.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L+95.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad06…b132backed Jay Clarke11c644.39$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$737639.5%30 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x224e…f7ddbacked Jay Clarke43c614.93$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2658951.7%46 W · 43 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Jay Clarke14c603.29$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.4628726.8%77 W · 210 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4c7…a27ebacked Jay Clarke49c601.13$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2944443.2%19 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5562…3b41backed Liam Draxl69c600$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.4214949.7%74 W · 75 L-13.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d2f…1bffbacked Jay Clarke11c600$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.541643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c3a…5c97backed Jay Clarke11c560$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.196221%13 W · 49 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-45.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Jay Clarke30c524.81$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5435932.6%117 W · 242 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfbf…8c7bbacked Jay Clarke21c476.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Jay Clarke32c468.75$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Jay Clarke27c465.43$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.564,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xded3…b470backed Liam Draxl71c441.94$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.24683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick66cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ae3…3c15backed Liam Draxl68c441.18$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1868350.1%342 W · 341 L-25.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Jay Clarke29c439.59$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.477,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Jay Clarke12c425.99$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.029522.1%21 W · 74 L-11.7wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-51.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Jay Clarke31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf05c…66b9backed Jay Clarke3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12130%0 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59aa…3376backed Liam Draxl46c370.48$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.965267.3%35 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cab…8228backed Jay Clarke23c354.36$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.923116.1%5 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-43.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa706…4b9ebacked Jay Clarke33c353$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.491540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0324…fdbcbacked Liam Draxl53c345.97$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.272373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+27.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Liam Draxl64c345.65$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.4326254.6%143 W · 119 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x051b…09d4backed Jay Clarke15c342.31$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5367836%244 W · 434 L+8.7wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ac…9c87backed Jay Clarke33c336.85$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.166942%29 W · 40 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb0f…b652backed Jay Clarke12c324$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.185927.1%16 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-34%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Liam Draxl62c314.09$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.8511,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb906…2a75backed Jay Clarke31c310$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.140744%179 W · 228 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x13c9…5e53backed Jay Clarke11c300$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9311850.8%60 W · 58 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8eb…af00backed Liam Draxl77c300$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Jay Clarke31c293.33$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.937,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2838…e27fbacked Jay Clarke37c293$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.41837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Liam Draxl69c287.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.82,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Liam Draxl62c286.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.0696755.3%535 W · 432 L+3.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Jay Clarke20c279.57$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551,13027.9%315 W · 815 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7e4…15eebacked Jay Clarke11c276$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.94617.4%8 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Liam Draxl65c274$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.91,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Liam Draxl69c270$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.932,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99f7…1a59backed Jay Clarke12c267.2$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.8169438%264 W · 430 L+21.0wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Liam Draxl69c264.57$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.292,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc74d…9690backed Jay Clarke11c257$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0529039.3%114 W · 176 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Jay Clarke22c255.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8995846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Jay Clarke35c254.3$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.221,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8bd…478fbacked Jay Clarke12c249.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9254450.6%275 W · 269 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b80…8b39backed Jay Clarke7c242.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175858.6%34 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedd1…45a9backed Jay Clarke13c238$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.994114.6%6 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Jay Clarke43c234$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Liam Draxl73c231.92$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.312,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x94bb…77eebacked Jay Clarke32c230.63$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7381933.1%271 W · 548 L-30.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Jay Clarke28c227$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6173745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5b0…f879backed Liam Draxl53c226.42$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.427943%34 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Jay Clarke20c226.37$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.277521.3%16 W · 59 L-9.7wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-62.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7447…91ecbacked Jay Clarke32c226$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.326645.5%30 W · 36 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b71…80ecbacked Jay Clarke38c222.34$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8521149.8%105 W · 106 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x91e0…26a0backed Jay Clarke12c220$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5625737%95 W · 162 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Jay Clarke27c217$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.6426941.3%111 W · 158 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Jay Clarke34c212$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9620336%73 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Jay Clarke31c206$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8628038.2%107 W · 173 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Liam Draxl52c205.02$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.4149252.4%258 W · 234 L+28.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+34.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked Liam Draxl66c205$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.7939751.4%204 W · 193 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Jay Clarke30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6086835.4%307 W · 561 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa423…d3dfbacked Jay Clarke13c200$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253548.6%17 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+25.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Liam Draxl64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7297141.4%402 W · 569 L+13.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Jay Clarke32c196.01$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.42,76153.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L+73.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.