Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd1fb3fcd698136db15010c2334acee7f92658e8dc5aa59d6023bb4e750c7d6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,949
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bc7…7e35backed Yes | 73c | 550.34$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 58c | 497.62$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.28 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 70c | 419.48$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.59 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 23c | 241.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.84 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 48c | 227.82$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.28 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 227.7$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.06 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 56c | 210.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 183.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 22c | 182.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.19 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 27c | 164.06$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.76 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 142.95$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 26c | 138.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 46c | 127.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed No | 49c | 127.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 27c | 104.48$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 103.92$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.86 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed Yes | 46c | 101.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.66 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 36c | 95.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 51c | 95.23$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 50c | 77.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 72c | 69.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…44c4backed Yes | 56c | 60.73$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 154 | 49.4%76 W · 78 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.93 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 57.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 32c | 55.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 70c | 50.56$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 35c | 48.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 35c | 48.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 47.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 26c | 47.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 79c | 47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 64c | 45.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 27c | 42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 39.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 72c | 37.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 64c | 35.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 56c | 35.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 59c | 33.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 78c | 31.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb32a…e349backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 36c | 28.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 62c | 25.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 57c | 21.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 49c | 21.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 74c | 20.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e3…6863backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 78c | 18.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe63a…0679backed No | 55c | 18.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 61c | 17.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b3…e571backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 81°F or below on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.