Europa Conference League · resolved market
US Mondorf-les-Bains vs. SK Dinamo Tbilisi: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdda3363bb5da9b857f5ed523a163f61616fb1e3b950e91fed4f047b060ddbd0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,587
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 53c | 11,848$6,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,273.82 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Under | 1c | 3,010$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Over | 47c | 3,000$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,590 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Over | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Over | 47c | 1,104$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.12 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Over | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.5 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 39c | 975$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.87 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 68c | 919.79$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.81 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Over | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…01b1backed Under | 51c | 592.82$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 48c | 512.15$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.32 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed Over | 47c | 456$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.68 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 361.37$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60ab…e297backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…0048backed Over | 47c | 300$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Over | 47c | 294$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.82 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Over | 47c | 288$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 49c | 268.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.83 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Over | 47c | 240$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Over | 47c | 240$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +9.3wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 48c | 228.24$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.16 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 48c | 196.62$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.23 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Over | 49c | 179.59$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.59 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…067cbacked Over | 48c | 158$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Over | 49c | 133.19$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Over | 47c | 120$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Over | 47c | 114$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 49c | 80.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 50c | 72.21$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 48c | 65.85$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 1,033 | 46.1%476 W · 557 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 147 | 56.5%83 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 52c | 36.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…3546backed Over | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 52c | 22.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e85…3b3bbacked Over | 70c | 17.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Mondorf-les-Bains vs. SK Dinamo Tbilisi: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: SK Dinamo Tbilisi (-1.5)US Mondorf-les-Bains won
- Spread: SK Dinamo Tbilisi (-2.5)US Mondorf-les-Bains won
- Spread: US Mondorf-les-Bains (-1.5)SK Dinamo Tbilisi won
- US Mondorf-les-Bains vs. SK Dinamo Tbilisi: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Mondorf-les-Bains vs. SK Dinamo Tbilisi: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Mondorf-les-Bains vs. SK Dinamo Tbilisi: O/U 4.5Under won
- US Mondorf-les-Bains vs. SK Dinamo Tbilisi: O/U 5.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.