Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddb29b403194ae6381db5dc37b09f077e1557ef275b540b6dc895d11340003df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,885
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,885 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 0c | 5,595$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 8c | 1,003$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb64e…319abacked Yes | 2c | 641.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56bc…8ce5backed Yes | 3c | 614.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 24c | 569.76$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.08 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 80c | 522.08$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.42 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 478.73$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.08 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 441.33$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 336.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 311.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 37c | 290.99$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.06 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 260.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.37 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 12c | 252.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 20c | 238.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 34c | 231.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…6faebacked Yes | 14c | 211.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 196.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 175.21$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 66c | 170.16$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 164.18$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.32 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 20c | 162.04$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd0…8b94backed No | 70c | 143.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 23c | 142.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 141.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 79c | 118.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 62c | 116.78$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked Yes | 38c | 108.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 21c | 102.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…a71cbacked Yes | 41c | 95.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 94.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 12c | 90.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 87.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 34c | 85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 80c | 82.31$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 81.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 32c | 79.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 24c | 74.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 35c | 73.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 29c | 72.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 28c | 72.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 20c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 15c | 71.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 24c | 62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 36c | 55.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…f641backed No | 74c | 52.34$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 91 | 64.8%59 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 49.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 22c | 48.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 39c | 48.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 46.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…015fbacked Yes | 30c | 43.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 78c | 41.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 40.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 28c | 35.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c79…c259backed No | 78c | 35.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 69c | 33.6$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 74c | 33.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 70c | 32.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 69c | 29.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…f9acbacked No | 80c | 27.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 77c | 26.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf876…8975backed No | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 68c | 23.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 71c | 18.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 79c | 17.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 60c | 16.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397b…5024backed No | 80c | 15.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 73c | 14.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 74c | 13.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed No | 78c | 13.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.92 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.