Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98b67d13e448d0aec08e00758f5f2d5b9caca336280dd820f94253cead7fff5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,438 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 25c | 950.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.08 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 19c | 713.8$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 19c | 574.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 80c | 424.01$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 65c | 333.79$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.12 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 27c | 309.43$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.92 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 281.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 76c | 248.78$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed Yes | 74c | 247.4$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.3 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 26c | 242.08$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.73 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x883a…f76bbacked No | 62c | 241.9$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.98 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 12c | 199.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 199.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.35 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 28c | 199.47$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 195.93$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.59 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e55…9a76backed Yes | 68c | 189$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 42c | 177.09$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 24c | 175.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 42c | 166.6$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.73 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 66c | 162.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.69 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 67c | 150.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 142.64$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1879…b287backed No | 33c | 141.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked Yes | 72c | 138.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 37c | 134.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 75c | 132.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2f…37a6backed Yes | 80c | 128.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 125.04$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.06 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes | 67c | 119.11$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 114.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 44c | 112.4$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…307dbacked Yes | 59c | 108.74$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 29c | 107.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 70c | 105.39$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 100.55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.29 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 100.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 59c | 98.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…a71cbacked Yes | 35c | 96.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 25c | 94.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 48c | 93.6$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 66c | 90$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 88.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb244…7ed9backed Yes | 70c | 88.63$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 62c | 86.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d99…62a8backed No | 17c | 86.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 58c | 68.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 68.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 63c | 66.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…6bf6backed Yes | 39c | 64.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.68 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 64.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…7093backed No | 40c | 61.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 68c | 60.81$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc769…0925backed Yes | 33c | 60.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431c…4bbdbacked Yes | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 80c | 59.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaff2…9070backed Yes | 76c | 58.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…c30dbacked Yes | 38c | 52.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71b5…d067backed Yes | 45c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x399d…bf83backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 42c | 47.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…fe58backed Yes | 37c | 47.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…14bcbacked Yes | 54c | 46.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 46.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cf…fa69backed Yes | 67c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +259.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.04 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 59c | 43.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.09 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 58c | 42.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.02 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 69c | 41.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 64c | 41.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 68c | 40.5$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 37c | 40.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 59c | 39.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 74c | 37.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked Yes | 71c | 37.79$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed Yes | 67c | 37.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78c7…d4cdbacked Yes | 54c | 37.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 55c | 36.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 38c | 36.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 58c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 50c | 34.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed Yes | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 78c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 58c | 31.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C or below on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.