Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde012f93c85c5f94de90a8d6663e3dabc78e5296e42e4437cd43a41f3f4f9ab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,569
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,453
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,569 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 868.37$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 734.22$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 38c | 608.25$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d0…b73abacked No | 67c | 425.52$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.64 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 43c | 386.62$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.13 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 359$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.8 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 35c | 328$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 29c | 318.7$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 10c | 291.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 282.69$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 269.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 64c | 261.87$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.8 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 261.6$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.84 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 17c | 216.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 8c | 212.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed Yes | 45c | 206.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.91 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 23c | 189.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 70c | 187.96$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 43c | 168.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.45 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 28c | 161.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 159.2$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 71c | 131.87$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 66c | 101.8$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 75c | 100.07$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 94.69$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 38c | 90$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc054…2050backed No | 65c | 87.43$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 29c | 82.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 43c | 80.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 69c | 77.35$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 42c | 71.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed Yes | 26c | 71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x107c…ab15backed Yes | 37c | 69.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 63c | 68.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa755…6c5bbacked Yes | 45c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 125 | 30.4%38 W · 87 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 43c | 67.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 65.6$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 77c | 58.42$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 45c | 54.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 52.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44ec…082cbacked Yes | 42c | 49.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 57c | 48.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 27c | 45.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 34c | 44.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 47c | 44.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Yes | 55c | 43.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 41c | 42.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 66c | 41.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…511bbacked No | 71c | 38.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 72c | 31.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 39c | 30.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 38c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 53c | 29.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 26.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 57c | 25.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5749…73abbacked No | 79c | 21.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 123 | 48.8%60 W · 63 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 20.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7a83backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…a510backed No | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 17.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 80c | 14.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.