MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde01de27692c40cbfa8f9b1ff59e2f29f0353a9cadde10e038f23763585dbc1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,219
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,219 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 53c | 25,445$13,479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,965.2 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 51c | 24,894$12,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,583.17 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Over | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,299.96 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 62c | 6,434$3,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,981 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ff…473dbacked Under | 53c | 4,926$2,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,610.76 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 4,299$1,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,823.64 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 2,256$1,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.68 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc11…4b4abacked Under | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 4cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 39c | 750$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…1c90backed Over | 65c | 699.99$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 64c | 657.32$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.66 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 36c | 584.47$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.22 | 3,456 | 51.2%1,771 W · 1,685 L | +107.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 53c | 571.58$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.94 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 52c | 560.5$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.26 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 58c | 520.38$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.41 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 73c | 302$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 5c | 259.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 36c | 170.5$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.94 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 54c | 151.58$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…a701backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Under | 69c | 147$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Under | 53c | 128.83$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.28 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 53c | 100.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 93.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6d…31cebacked Under | 34c | 88.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Under | 63c | 87.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Under | 35c | 86.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 57c | 82.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 52c | 82.37$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Under | 48c | 74.54$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 52c | 70.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.81 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 52c | 62.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf0…fdbebacked Over | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 82 | 64.6%53 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15cf…4d9bbacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 38c | 45.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 53c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 49c | 41.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 41c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 56c | 26.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17be…e5b4backed Over | 50c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 446 | 51.6%230 W · 216 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5577…7d35backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.