MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc3af569089622f5c5302cc7ec1382c812dc2bf7ceccf2e2452b96e03a6194a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Texas Rangers, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,041
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,041 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Texas Rangers | 40c | 10,310$4,124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,124.05 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 79c | 8,553$6,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 7,433$4,212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,212.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Texas Rangers | 11c | 7,369$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.7 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Houston Astros | 44c | 5,831$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,293.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e8…cd6fbacked Texas Rangers | 39c | 1,287$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.84 | 360 | 48.6%175 W · 185 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 49c | 1,260$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.86 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 1,024$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Houston Astros | 43c | 800$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.26 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Houston Astros | 77c | 750$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 746.97$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.92 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Houston Astros | 60c | 700$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Houston Astros | 71c | 624.09$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.51 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 52c | 526$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.94 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Houston Astros | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 462$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.28 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a2…5181backed Texas Rangers | 5c | 419.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 195 | 42.6%83 W · 112 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Houston Astros | 60c | 390$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Houston Astros | 77c | 320.04$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.24 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Houston Astros | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…4171backed Houston Astros | 60c | 247$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Houston Astros | 45c | 236.12$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Texas Rangers | 37c | 228.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Texas Rangers | 39c | 202.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Houston Astros | 70c | 199.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.86 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Houston Astros | 61c | 194.11$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Houston Astros | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 156.34$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.11 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers | 25c | 155.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Houston Astros | 63c | 142.86$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Houston Astros | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f3…d396backed Houston Astros | 63c | 119.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 506 | 47%238 W · 268 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Houston Astros | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 75c | 111.58$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 85.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Texas Rangers | 16c | 80.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Houston Astros | 38c | 78.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.28 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Texas Rangers | 39c | 73.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 413 | 46.7%193 W · 220 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Houston Astros | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Houston Astros | 63c | 63.49$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Houston Astros | 60c | 61.39$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 46c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Texas Rangers | 58c | 53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Texas Rangers | 38c | 49.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Houston Astros | 48c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Houston Astros | 42c | 43.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 40.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Houston Astros | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Houston Astros | 61c | 38.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 34.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Houston Astros | 71c | 32.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67f6…1651backed Texas Rangers | 34c | 30.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Houston Astros | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Houston Astros | 79c | 27.39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 24.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 22.22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Texas Rangers | 50c | 21.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Houston Astros | 62c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.