Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Naoki Nakagawa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde18d5db6589f3a44a28c32481aad5a4c80f78d828a35e45864856d0932c49e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Naoki Nakagawaof Naoya Honda, Naoki Nakagawa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,751
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Naoya Honda | 70c | 5,686$3,980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,980.29 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Naoki Nakagawa | 28c | 4,132$1,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973.57 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6982…a165backed Naoki Nakagawa | 69c | 1,453$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453 | 629 | 56.9%358 W · 271 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Naoya Honda | 31c | 1,192$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.52 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Naoki Nakagawa | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 1,428 | 48.2%689 W · 739 L | +4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Naoki Nakagawa | 32c | 506.2$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.35 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Naoya Honda | 22c | 427.59$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.42 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Naoki Nakagawa | 33c | 412$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.1 | 1,822 | 41%747 W · 1,075 L | -30.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Naoya Honda | 56c | 409.2$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.87 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Naoki Nakagawa | 44c | 381.81$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.81 | 5,261 | 28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L | -19.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdec4…046fbacked Naoya Honda | 13c | 335.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 178 | 29.2%52 W · 126 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Naoya Honda | 61c | 325.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.85 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed Naoki Nakagawa | 30c | 200$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…339fbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 39c | 197$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed Naoya Honda | 70c | 183.15$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 154 | 56.5%87 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Naoki Nakagawa | 30c | 164.2$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.2 | 2,151 | 37.3%802 W · 1,349 L | -27.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Naoki Nakagawa | 34c | 159.41$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…c6f3backed Naoki Nakagawa | 67c | 142.79$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.44 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Naoki Nakagawa | 35c | 135.84$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.34 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Naoki Nakagawa | 42c | 122$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.4 | 920 | 46.6%429 W · 491 L | -14.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Naoya Honda | 25c | 109.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Naoki Nakagawa | 34c | 97.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.06 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Naoya Honda | 45c | 96.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Naoya Honda | 55c | 86.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Naoya Honda | 49c | 83.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Naoya Honda | 70c | 82.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 1,276 | 61%778 W · 498 L | +27.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Naoya Honda | 62c | 77.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…56ffbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 46c | 75.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.36 | 118 | 32.2%38 W · 80 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e25…db26backed Naoki Nakagawa | 67c | 68.75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 825 | 60.5%499 W · 326 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Naoya Honda | 55c | 64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.14 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Naoya Honda | 56c | 63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 295 | 51.5%152 W · 143 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097c…630abacked Naoya Honda | 29c | 62.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | -12.1wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Naoya Honda | 57c | 61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.97 | 275 | 50.2%138 W · 137 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Naoya Honda | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 197 | 44.7%88 W · 109 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…3e8cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 39c | 58.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 302 | 46.7%141 W · 161 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Naoya Honda | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 561 | 53.7%301 W · 260 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…986cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 36c | 51.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 636 | 48%305 W · 331 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…331cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 66c | 48.2$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 348 | 64.1%223 W · 125 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Naoki Nakagawa | 73c | 43.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…9cf0backed Naoki Nakagawa | 34c | 42.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 252 | 37.3%94 W · 158 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Naoya Honda | 58c | 41.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bce…db46backed Naoki Nakagawa | 31c | 36.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbd…d0dfbacked Naoya Honda | 68c | 36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Naoki Nakagawa | 72c | 35.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 829 | 58.1%482 W · 347 L | +17.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Naoya Honda | 55c | 27.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 2,854 | 39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L | -83.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Naoya Honda | 57c | 26.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f24…210cbacked Naoya Honda | 70c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Naoya Honda | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…be94backed Naoya Honda | 75c | 19.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Naoki Nakagawa | 72c | 17.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 788 | 47.5%374 W · 414 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.