MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde518d72b016b3acedfed6faee85434803d629b527eed66b2c58af7327b10aff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 23,086$8,482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,603.75 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa080…234fbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 23,009$14,496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,495.9 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 2,214$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.73 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 2,160$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.79 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 1,820$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.4 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 1,351$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.35 | 1,213 | 40.5%491 W · 722 L | -32.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 1,201$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$648.46 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 1,146$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Toronto Blue Jays | 54c | 1,129$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 1,024$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.88 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Toronto Blue Jays | 15c | 636.22$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.18 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 628.87$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.29 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 608.8$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.38 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 41c | 494.71$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.58 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 454$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.24 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 394.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.74 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 65c | 315.93$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.88 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 313.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.42 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Toronto Blue Jays | 12c | 281.81$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Boston Red Sox | 38c | 208.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.21 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.99 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 190.06$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.96 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 38c | 184$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Toronto Blue Jays | 67c | 183.64$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 48c | 150.1$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 147.7$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.85 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 140.54$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Boston Red Sox | 39c | 88.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 244 | 44.7%109 W · 135 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 78.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 69.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 60$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Toronto Blue Jays | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Toronto Blue Jays | 61c | 43.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 41.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Toronto Blue Jays | 62c | 33.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d4…7c0dbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 32.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 289 | 48.1%139 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 29.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…e19bbacked Boston Red Sox | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Toronto Blue Jays | 56c | 20.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Toronto Blue Jays | 63c | 19.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8471…9e49backed Toronto Blue Jays | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.2wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.