MLB · resolved market
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x744b3faa83559c04999fd0109e0f43681e003e46524c1578fbe7981d594f34b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,164
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 14,137$7,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,126.28 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 49c | 5,522$2,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.7 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629c…6c01backed Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 49c | 4,626$2,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.61 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 62c | 3,507$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.88 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 51c | 3,267$1,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.83 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 43c | 2,920$1,256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,255.64 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -14.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 15c | 2,301$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.04 | 1,939 | 41.2%799 W · 1,140 L | -30.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 1,754$868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.97 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 63c | 1,356$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.92 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98a4…b64dbacked Over | 52c | 1,347$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…83dabacked Over | 51c | 1,176$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 51c | 1,149$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.34 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 48c | 1,024$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.47 | 2,311 | 51%1,179 W · 1,132 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 51c | 1,021$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.86 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 42c | 899.87$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.91 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…91a0backed Under | 49c | 770$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 16c | 637.24$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.61 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 51c | 636.92$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.83 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 52c | 616.34$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.25 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 24c | 578$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.72 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 45c | 530.56$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.75 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 343 | 53.4%183 W · 160 L | +18.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 64c | 419.89$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 31c | 360.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.63 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 50c | 335.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 328.99$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.49 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 324.98$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.99 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 4c | 298$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369e…d016backed Under | 71c | 255.05$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.05 | 119 | 62.2%74 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 71c | 253.8$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Under | 51c | 195.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 79c | 168.34$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…efddbacked Over | 44c | 160$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.4 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 64c | 129.79$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.55 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 50c | 116.21$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c8…023abacked Over | 50c | 104$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 76c | 102.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 49c | 99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.51 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Under | 77c | 95.93$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 93.21$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.18 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 51c | 90.04$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 77c | 87.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.2 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 70.81$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 64c | 67.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 52c | 57.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 77c | 47.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Under | 51c | 47.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 46c | 40.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 52c | 38.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Over | 33c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 51c | 31.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Under | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 51c | 28.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…c30bbacked Under | 76c | 25.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 74c | 22.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 52c | 19.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5this page
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 5.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5Over won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red SoxNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.