TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Philadelphia Philliesof Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,859

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,821 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins46c2,095$973 inLost-$972.5210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0103…5ca8backed Philadelphia Phillies54c2,000$1,080 inWon+$9201442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Miami Marlins40c941.55$376 inLost-$376.3711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2805…76edbacked Philadelphia Phillies61c509.94$311 inWon+$198.8821242%89 W · 123 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Philadelphia Phillies54c440.95$237 inWon+$204.42,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins3c438.51$15 inLost-$14.782,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31dd…4537backed Miami Marlins22c300$66 inLost-$66933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Philadelphia Phillies78c230$180 inWon+$50.28,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Philadelphia Phillies78c95$74 inWon+$20.955448.2%267 W · 287 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa032…2090backed Philadelphia Phillies78c80$62 inWon+$17.695252.9%504 W · 448 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8494…f290backed Miami Marlins57c72.73$41 inLost-$41.492050%10 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7f1abacked Philadelphia Phillies46c60.73$28 inWon+$32.5341236.7%151 W · 261 L-16.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins22c52.18$11 inLost-$11.318,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Miami Marlins52c34.61$18 inLost-$17.944,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked Philadelphia Phillies32c31.25$10 inWon+$21.2547646.2%220 W · 256 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies47c31.25$15 inWon+$16.539,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dc8…e209backed Miami Marlins66c30.3$20 inLost-$2046152.1%240 W · 221 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22e…eab8backed Miami Marlins66c29.68$20 inLost-$19.5948851.6%252 W · 236 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Philadelphia Phillies61c17$10 inWon+$6.631,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.