MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d4986fcb01e9f3c825e6fb1b1698e07c50403d61bcf0d01eb897ef6da8a42c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,058
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,058 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x70dc…1dfdbacked Over | 56c | 2,468$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.04 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | -17.3wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 44c | 1,477$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 42c | 1,462$619 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 58c | 700$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 42c | 692$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Over | 61c | 455.3$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.57 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 52c | 416.72$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.19 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96ea…639abacked Under | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 41c | 128.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 63c | 115.87$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 73c | 89.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 40c | 47.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 44c | 28.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 51c | 22.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.