MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91006763946ae947c9a4d851a491007e8538ede2250438e61bd1b60414425362
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 3,050$1,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,738.45 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 57c | 2,126$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.62 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 125 | 64%80 W · 45 L | +14.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 58c | 922$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.76 | 1,438 | 51%734 W · 704 L | -18.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed Under | 57c | 614.04$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 191 | 58.1%111 W · 80 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 41c | 461.1$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.05 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed Under | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 294 | 51%150 W · 144 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 58c | 344.51$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…235ebacked Over | 43c | 254.84$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.26 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 57c | 237.68$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.48 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 42c | 208.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b0…293fbacked Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked Under | 57c | 175.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 42c | 130.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.92 | 3,107 | 48.1%1,495 W · 1,612 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 124.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 57c | 104.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.68 | 1,224 | 54%661 W · 563 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 42c | 98.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 1,894 | 49.3%934 W · 960 L | +24.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 52c | 85.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 1,822 | 49.2%897 W · 925 L | -25.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91bc…28d6backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 201 | 54.2%109 W · 92 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 43c | 68.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.01 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked Under | 58c | 68.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 229 | 56.8%130 W · 99 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 43c | 67.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 2,319 | 51.1%1,184 W · 1,135 L | +26.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 34c | 64.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 534 | 38.6%206 W · 328 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed Under | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 189 | 55.6%105 W · 84 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Under | 20c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Under | 25c | 62.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.51 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 58.64$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 57c | 56.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 972 | 53.1%516 W · 456 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Under | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 61c | 37.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 57c | 35.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Over | 75c | 32.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 43c | 31.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc09f…8865backed Under | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 58c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 1,889 | 52.9%1,000 W · 889 L | +15.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 58c | 18.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.