MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0914e565797e72f8bd5fc45750176de10ff03ee7156797030a91fcd8c9cadc5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,688
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,688 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 2,825$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,332.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 2,524$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.03 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 1,148$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.73 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 984.38$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.32 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 692$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.67 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 53c | 402.94$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.38 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Miami Marlins | 6c | 345.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 55c | 200.93$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.77 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Miami Marlins | 48c | 161.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.76 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Philadelphia Phillies | 48c | 140$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.8 | 613 | 46.3%284 W · 329 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 102.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Miami Marlins | 57c | 78.05$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Miami Marlins | 54c | 68.52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 46c | 61.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Philadelphia Phillies | 51c | 58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Philadelphia Phillies | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Miami Marlins | 47c | 30.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Miami Marlins | 46c | 29.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 28.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4732…f40dbacked Miami Marlins | 54c | 27.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Miami Marlins | 47c | 26.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 59c | 19.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 19.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 203 | 62.6%127 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 61c | 17.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.