MLB · resolved market
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c954f0ea55943adef759573d08e567850ac09371a8fbb88601f550fbfc1f6bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,178
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,178 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 48c | 66,666$32,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,999.68 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe558…dcd2backed Over | 52c | 37,749$19,630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,119.75 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 13,117$6,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,296.07 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 13,045$6,781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,264.11 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 51c | 11,597$5,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,682.43 | 481 | 48.6%234 W · 247 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Under | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,800 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 9,331$4,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,550.08 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 52c | 9,280$4,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,454.23 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 49c | 4,754$2,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,329.23 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 51c | 1,800$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 1,781$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.44 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 52c | 1,114$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.54 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 48c | 520$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 1,139 | 42.7%486 W · 653 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 48c | 457.52$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.61 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 52c | 425.57$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.27 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 240 | 59.2%142 W · 98 L | +18.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 53c | 392$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.16 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5e…2ea3backed Under | 7c | 340$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 49c | 250.85$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.85 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…2919backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13b8…0f33backed Over | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 52c | 128.25$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Under | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 546 | 54.9%300 W · 246 L | +12.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 48c | 110.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 204 | 55.4%113 W · 91 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 48c | 84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 52c | 77.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.56 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 48c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 33c | 62.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Under | 32c | 60.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Under | 50c | 60.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 48c | 59.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 49c | 57.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 64c | 54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Under | 49c | 51.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 50c | 42.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 49c | 37.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb3…b370backed Under | 48c | 36.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Under | 47c | 36.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 53c | 31.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,278 | 57%728 W · 550 L | +33.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Under | 48c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 895 | 48.3%432 W · 463 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 50c | 27.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0903…3d87backed Under | 49c | 25.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Under | 49c | 24.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…4efebacked Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…9b7fbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 57c | 17.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 13.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will the game go to extra innings?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsNo won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.