MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeaab56ce55c5caf2a9e419f2c6b7d9f9e42ab92a34d66b77739c5f797114b5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas City Royalsof Cleveland Guardians, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 2,399$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.7 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Cleveland Guardians | 38c | 2,314$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.32 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 1,160$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.12 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 1,062$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.76 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 973.06$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.58 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…cb75backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 800$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 269 | 48.7%131 W · 138 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 645.08$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.48 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Kansas City Royals | 73c | 499.98$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.08 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 204.23$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.83 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe96b…eb54backed Cleveland Guardians | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79fb…b4aebacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 171.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 143.88$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Cleveland Guardians | 23c | 140.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 124$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 981 | 49.9%490 W · 491 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 26c | 114.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cleveland Guardians | 18c | 108.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Kansas City Royals | 59c | 90.25$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 14c | 81.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 60.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Kansas City Royals | 72c | 60.41$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 57.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cleveland Guardians | 35c | 53.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4e…1483backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Kansas City Royals | 60c | 41.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 268 | 54.1%145 W · 123 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 36.07$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Kansas City Royals | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 205 | 51.7%106 W · 99 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…8e6bbacked Kansas City Royals | 64c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.