MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc249746e49c2703f155ef43661ff2a9bc1a4486b94f4206efacbdba78d26bdaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 2,356$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,272.27 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 54c | 2,315$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246.48 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d8…e9a1backed Under | 51c | 1,165$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 49c | 1,051$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.01 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 51c | 1,051$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.01 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb829…4f5ebacked Under | 3c | 875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 821.83$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 24c | 709.92$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 51c | 687$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.37 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 49c | 686.36$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.04 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 74c | 674.68$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.39 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 49c | 557.55$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.35 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 50c | 258.66$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.33 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 43c | 229.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.84 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 51c | 207.55$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Under | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 49c | 74.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 272 | 48.5%132 W · 140 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed Over | 49c | 66.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 69c | 58.21$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 60c | 46.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Over | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 50c | 36.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 74c | 33.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 41c | 31.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Under | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 74c | 13.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City RoyalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.