Cricket · resolved market
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier B: Serbia vs Estonia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdedfd072d89f270f5e09c37e5e04113e35e124d14599d48002fa99b5e6231a7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Estoniaof Serbia, Estonia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Cricketevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Cricket is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Cricket | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Serbia | 10c | 6,485$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.97 | 633 | 46.3%293 W · 340 L | +13.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Serbia | 11c | 1,304$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.28 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fff…9b0abacked Serbia | 11c | 700$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…3adbbacked Estonia | 66c | 640.07$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…4cd3backed Serbia | 37c | 560.14$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.81 | 676 | 31.4%212 W · 464 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Serbia | 46c | 524.35$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.85 | 385 | 44.4%171 W · 214 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Serbia | 15c | 507.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.77 | 159 | 35.2%56 W · 103 L | -11.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cd…820fbacked Serbia | 16c | 500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 187 | 29.4%55 W · 132 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Estonia | 69c | 374.76$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.21 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd348…0265backed Estonia | 75c | 350.21$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.69 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c7…b914backed Estonia | 54c | 234.62$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.16 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…9609backed Estonia | 60c | 222.07$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.94 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Serbia | 35c | 215.46$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.6 | 318 | 39.9%127 W · 191 L | -14.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Serbia | 38c | 213.85$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.89 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10da…dbe4backed Estonia | 72c | 208.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…2282backed Estonia | 65c | 183.71$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 106 | 70.8%75 W · 31 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Serbia | 32c | 158.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 420 | 44%185 W · 235 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Estonia | 56c | 154$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.84 | 186 | 42.5%79 W · 107 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Estonia | 64c | 142.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 652 | 50.9%332 W · 320 L | +26.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…39f5backed Estonia | 59c | 136.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.75 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Serbia | 46c | 115$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.21 | 416 | 47.4%197 W · 219 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Serbia | 20c | 108.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 159 | 36.5%58 W · 101 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Serbia | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Serbia | 17c | 96.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 269 | 29.4%79 W · 190 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Estonia | 77c | 90.39$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 762 | 51.6%393 W · 369 L | +29.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9a…3f5fbacked Estonia | 64c | 63.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…913fbacked Estonia | 65c | 63.02$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 290 | 51.7%150 W · 140 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af9…620ebacked Estonia | 61c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Serbia | 26c | 59.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Serbia | 29c | 54.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 228 | 34.2%78 W · 150 L | -17.6wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f34…ed6abacked Serbia | 42c | 53.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…1e9abacked Estonia | 56c | 53.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 104 | 20.2%21 W · 83 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Serbia | 38c | 51.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 183 | 57.9%106 W · 77 L | +17.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Serbia | 26c | 50.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 434 | 41%178 W · 256 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Estonia | 69c | 48.56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 248 | 40.7%101 W · 147 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Serbia | 35c | 41.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Serbia | 35c | 41.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 258 | 48.4%125 W · 133 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Estonia | 56c | 40.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2f…5388backed Estonia | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 79 | 65.8%52 W · 27 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Serbia | 45c | 38.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 159 | 66%105 W · 54 L | +16.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0c…1833backed Estonia | 57c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Serbia | 32c | 37.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaad9…f217backed Estonia | 54c | 36.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a99…40d8backed Estonia | 72c | 35.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 110 | 54.5%60 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…5d8ebacked Estonia | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 67cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Serbia | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 209 | 36.8%77 W · 132 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Serbia | 38c | 33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Estonia | 69c | 31.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 219 | 36.5%80 W · 139 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…4e13backed Estonia | 65c | 30.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Estonia | 68c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Estonia | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 154 | 50.6%78 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Estonia | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.34 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866b…c46ebacked Estonia | 71c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d8…3c0cbacked Serbia | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Estonia | 69c | 15.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 58 | 24.1%14 W · 44 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Cricket and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.