MLB · resolved market
Juan Soto: Home Runs O/U 0.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef7f2a3c2f372bdb0c5d14bbe73a3b4947e33844e0d91a9f3fbd150baed870f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,717
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,717 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 28c | 3,746$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.88 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 72c | 3,500$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…f8a3backed Over | 33c | 564.55$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 302 | 42.4%128 W · 174 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 67c | 534.27$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.31 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 72c | 137$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 72c | 104.83$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8956…755fbacked Over | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…bdc4backed Over | 23c | 91.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 75c | 66.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x40f5…55b9backed Over | 32c | 62.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 68c | 53.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Under | 73c | 41.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 159 | 53.5%85 W · 74 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Under | 74c | 40.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa422…d210backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 68c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 75c | 23.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 73c | 15.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Juan Soto: Home Runs O/U 0.5this page
- Aaron Nola: Strikeouts O/U 4.5Over won
- Brett Baty: Home Runs O/U 0.5Over won
- Kyle Schwarber: Home Runs O/U 0.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.