Champions League · resolved market
Will AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdefdd6279ea69f37a3b98e4eb484e89b5bdfaa2e449fcb97fe24bc25d5c9b7cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,010
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,215
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,010 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 79c | 2,940$2,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 20c | 2,881$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 21c | 1,897$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.4 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 27c | 1,173$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.71 | 380 | 43.9%167 W · 213 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…e912backed No | 73c | 999.97$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.99 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 19c | 927$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.9 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 75c | 770.4$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.96 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7087…c61fbacked Yes | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ba…134ebacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 20c | 350$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf438…de5dbacked Yes | 22c | 309.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.16 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb939…ed05backed No | 74c | 216.99$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.42 | 12 | 100%12 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52d3…4908backed Yes | 21c | 190.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked No | 75c | 187.85$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.16 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed Yes | 19c | 154.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -9.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -50%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca73…b02ebacked Yes | 28c | 134.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7881…5c15backed Yes | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 76c | 116.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 358 | 60.6%217 W · 141 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 18c | 113.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 21c | 108.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 79c | 102.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 343 | 42.3%145 W · 198 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +125.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 114 | 43%49 W · 65 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c12…93a7backed Yes | 21c | 97.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacb2…fb9dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8147…ab6cbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 79c | 95.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 86.59$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 1,511 | 40.2%608 W · 903 L | -6.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Yes | 19c | 83.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…d63cbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 26c | 73.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed No | 75c | 66.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…1046backed Yes | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x987b…f191backed Yes | 27c | 59.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…d108backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +110.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4e…0fd9backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79d…4350backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…f98ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked No | 73c | 29.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…df55backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…dd6bbacked No | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 76cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…eecebacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a3…102cbacked No | 74c | 13.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AFC Ajax vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?this page
- Will AFC Ajax win on 2025-11-25?No won
- Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2025-11-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.