South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf10e8e3397b3b0b5309f6a339b43dfe501b05735b1a72a26582747f1eba3ddf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Red Bull Bragantinoof CR Flamengo, Red Bull Bragantino
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,120
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Red Bull Bragantino | 53c | 1,258$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.17 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed CR Flamengo | 20c | 954.04$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 97 | 27.8%27 W · 70 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Red Bull Bragantino | 80c | 874.38$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.88 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…b609backed CR Flamengo | 23c | 509.54$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.19 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 75c | 289.73$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.47 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 77c | 284.8$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked CR Flamengo | 22c | 216.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.66 | 391 | 27.1%106 W · 285 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Red Bull Bragantino | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 119 | 63.9%76 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa580…2abfbacked CR Flamengo | 24c | 152.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 75c | 109.55$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9902…34b3backed CR Flamengo | 22c | 95.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed CR Flamengo | 19c | 80.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed CR Flamengo | 22c | 65.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Red Bull Bragantino | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…45f6backed CR Flamengo | 23c | 47.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Red Bull Bragantino | 77c | 39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Red Bull Bragantino | 49c | 38.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Red Bull Bragantino | 77c | 38.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Red Bull Bragantino | 78c | 17.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Red Bull Bragantino | 80c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: CR Flamengo (-1.5)this page
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CR Flamengo: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5Over won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Red Bull Bragantino vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-1.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
- Spread: Red Bull Bragantino (-2.5)Red Bull Bragantino won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.