TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 3?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,788 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes0c2,016$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid-25.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5f5…5d54backed No63c1,332$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.6428324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes38c601.44$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2189544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No61c452.6$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.458,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes3c363.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.117,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes4c312$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.486219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1171,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No62c276$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.884,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x759d…cc80backed Yes37c228.79$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.4477851.9%404 W · 374 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No60c227.72$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0942754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c212.77$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.988,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes6c211.9$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1261676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes36c189.1$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.341,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed No62c186.65$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.931,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes28c172$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1628344.5%126 W · 157 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb31b…b140backed Yes37c169.63$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.7655954.7%306 W · 253 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed No57c161.44$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2758152%302 W · 279 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed No52c151$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.791,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a1f…4877backed Yes35c139.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3280130.8%247 W · 554 L+1.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a3b…957bbacked No60c127.16$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5637056.5%209 W · 161 L+31.7wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes38c125.51$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.451,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No72c125$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c117.5$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8412,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No62c110$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.94,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes44c102.92$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.584,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No66c101.77$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.279,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed No55c100.03$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0350648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3172837.8%275 W · 453 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8859…89d6backed Yes36c93.57$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.159541.1%39 W · 56 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-25.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No56c81.43$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.831,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No64c80$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81,55056.7%879 W · 671 L-83.2wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No60c79.55$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.213,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes39c78.22$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.585,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed No31c78.16$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.721,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes37c77.28$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.572,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes38c75.21$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.321,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes35c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.251,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x451a…3b01backed No59c67.95$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9517858.4%104 W · 74 L-0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No63c61.47$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.479,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45e7…d77cbacked No68c56.45$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.0649551.9%257 W · 238 L-25.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe6e…2313backed Yes35c53.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6626256.5%148 W · 114 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes39c52.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.614,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5c9e…3a21backed No63c50.3$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.551,17454.9%644 W · 530 L+49.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1963255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1985049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd514…bbdfbacked No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1957948.4%280 W · 299 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65c7…e100backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9322744.1%100 W · 127 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab5e…47f6backed Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185935.6%21 W · 38 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes38c49.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes38c44.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0787629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes38c43.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2981855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75cc…6b15backed No66c42.54$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.461,18149.4%583 W · 598 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914e…8355backed No61c42.51$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4216859.5%100 W · 68 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes33c42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.956,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked Yes34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.62759.3%16 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+47%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.793,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed Yes38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1525954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes38c39.99$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1590555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c39.2$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.525,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes38c39.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1559144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84c2…c908backed Yes37c37.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.85724.6%14 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-13.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No41c35.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.141,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes30c35.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.561,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1346…af38backed No68c33.65$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.632356.5%13 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No61c33.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.187,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbc…e05dbacked No59c31.88$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9317255.2%95 W · 77 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No39c31.31$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.972,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.36,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1fa…9611backed No71c28.13$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1315555.5%86 W · 69 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes39c27.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7228441.5%118 W · 166 L-18.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-17.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No72c27$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.564,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb57e…0b91backed No63c26.42$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7846457.5%267 W · 197 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No69c25.36$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8644366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x39c9…b108backed Yes41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2534457%196 W · 148 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db6…e1f8backed No65c24.94$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7311157.7%64 W · 47 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb5…9400backed No60c24.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.9652758.8%310 W · 217 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes57c24.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.051,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x845c…a1b2backed No63c24.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.071346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No61c24.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.4282268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x3e0e…8110backed No64c23.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.422857.1%16 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fef…66ecbacked No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.63545.7%16 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed No64c19.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8937355%205 W · 168 L+20.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ece…1949backed No64c16.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7917361.8%107 W · 66 L-9.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28ea…7367backed No69c15.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.841,89661.5%1,166 W · 730 L-5.9wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.