Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf16b0ce47092fbd4e1e40737c06069b359ef9cbe0e7d5874e2f93b83b95c3f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,515
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes | 0c | 2,016$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 63c | 1,332$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.64 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 38c | 601.44$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.21 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 452.6$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 3c | 363.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 4c | 312$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 276$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.88 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 37c | 228.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 60c | 227.72$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.09 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 212.77$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 6c | 211.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 189.1$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 62c | 186.65$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.93 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 28c | 172$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.16 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 37c | 169.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 57c | 161.44$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 52c | 151$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 35c | 139.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 60c | 127.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 38c | 125.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 117.5$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 110$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.9 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 102.92$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 101.77$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.27 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 55c | 100.03$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Yes | 36c | 93.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.2wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 81.43$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.83 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 60c | 79.55$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 78.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 31c | 78.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 37c | 77.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.57 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 38c | 75.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 59c | 67.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 61.47$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 68c | 56.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed Yes | 35c | 53.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 39c | 52.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 63c | 50.3$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 38c | 44.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 38c | 43.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 66c | 42.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 61c | 42.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4207…b81bbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +47%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 39.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 38c | 39.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 37c | 37.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 41c | 35.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 30c | 35.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…af38backed No | 68c | 33.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 33.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbc…e05dbacked No | 59c | 31.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 39c | 31.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fa…9611backed No | 71c | 28.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 39c | 27.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 63c | 26.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 464 | 57.5%267 W · 197 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 69c | 25.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 65c | 24.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.73 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 60c | 24.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 57c | 24.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a1b2backed No | 63c | 24.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 61c | 24.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…8110backed No | 64c | 23.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fef…66ecbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 64c | 19.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ece…1949backed No | 64c | 16.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 173 | 61.8%107 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 69c | 15.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 3?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.