Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7013a19086e287d95bf7cff763b7c86fe14afd3e31fa911d16de4d894242e3cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,753
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,070
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,753 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ad1…3556backed Yes | 40c | 1,164$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.72 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 33c | 945.19$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.51 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 38c | 300$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed Yes | 39c | 284.73$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.69 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 36c | 223.87$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.36 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 176$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.55 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 40c | 152.77$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.7 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 62c | 143.84$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 140.39$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.44 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 35c | 128.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.44 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 35c | 104.08$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 71c | 103.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.48 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 37c | 102.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.76 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 64c | 85.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 83.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 55c | 82.32$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 70.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 57.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5e…8819backed Yes | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 48c | 53.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 19c | 53.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 50.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 43c | 47.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 45.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 57c | 43.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 214 | 72%154 W · 60 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42ce…37aebacked No | 62c | 41.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x259f…3294backed Yes | 40c | 41.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 60c | 41.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 39.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 39.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 35.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 45c | 31.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 31.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 67c | 31.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 61c | 26.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 40c | 25.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 24.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a1b2backed No | 64c | 24.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 48c | 22.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 61c | 19.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 67c | 17.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202f…9c6fbacked No | 62c | 16.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on July 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on July 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.