F1 · resolved market
Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf41ec2e9b5773295a88d138638917dce05b9923afa30396bc57475899c74fdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x376d…9b48backed Yes | 2c | 2,600$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 6c | 622.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 25c | 496.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…2216backed Yes | 39c | 490.3$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…3130backed No | 68c | 384$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.1 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d4…84a1backed No | 73c | 251.73$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.89 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825f…0997backed Yes | 42c | 248.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76dc…17b4backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 126 | 46.8%59 W · 67 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x132e…c724backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf584…e58fbacked Yes | 13c | 169.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67a7…86cebacked Yes | 9c | 168.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 30c | 166$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 159 | 32.7%52 W · 107 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 70c | 140.34$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8528…d446backed Yes | 39c | 115.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160a…ffa2backed Yes | 43c | 97.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46e4…51debacked Yes | 72c | 91.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83d…139ebacked Yes | 22c | 87.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x280f…60a9backed Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 56c | 64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 63c | 63.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 83 | 38.6%32 W · 51 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa78…7248backed Yes | 22c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b8…7675backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995c…8770backed Yes | 44c | 42.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 47c | 41.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…13e7backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 66c | 39.47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 91 | 65.9%60 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5397…5d05backed No | 58c | 34.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed No | 39c | 31.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…c311backed Yes | 34c | 30.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…d132backed No | 66c | 30.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b5…f72cbacked Yes | 77c | 26.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df1…38dfbacked Yes | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.