F1 · resolved market
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x570f48dba953af80bc6a3246ce1b2d50a487d584063a489e0de7f871fe27aa4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,227
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,227 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes | 28c | 6,101$1,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,692.35 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 72c | 5,996$4,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,675.31 | 213 | 37.6%80 W · 133 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Yes | 31c | 2,025$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.91 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8834…d285backed No | 64c | 1,140$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa01b…bc1dbacked Yes | 33c | 611.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 26c | 510$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.9 | 132 | 19.7%26 W · 106 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 208 | 43.3%90 W · 118 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 67c | 375.16$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.75 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 67c | 372.16$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…0004backed No | 76c | 368.95$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 122 | 46.7%57 W · 65 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 31c | 365$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.15 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e37…03d2backed No | 69c | 320$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…b6e8backed Yes | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf30…6194backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 24c | 222$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57c3…3201backed Yes | 29c | 169.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ea…0b14backed Yes | 36c | 133.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3147…7667backed Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f9b…7829backed Yes | 29c | 112$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 69c | 109.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5c…48f9backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f9a…8ecebacked No | 69c | 92.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc72c…4b39backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 21cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…c23fbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98a…99b1backed Yes | 36c | 69.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…832fbacked Yes | 33c | 66.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa0…f1babacked Yes | 35c | 56.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…5a9abacked No | 77c | 50.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 47.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d84…2a04backed Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 72c | 33.7$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e8…cc6cbacked Yes | 35c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked No | 75c | 30.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +8.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lando Norris win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?this page
- Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Carlos Sainz win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?Yes won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2025 F1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix pole?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.