Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4514fb9148dde33c65e8490ae6690192d7913742dd8f6ae494d6dbe955e4d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 4c | 1,085$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.31 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 64c | 640.98$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 524.41$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.44 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 490$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.48 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 31c | 426.91$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.86 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 417.77$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.83 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 51c | 397.81$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.19 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 4c | 384.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 297.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…daebbacked Yes | 55c | 287.97$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.55 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 59c | 276.31$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.68 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7539…2719backed Yes | 57c | 265.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 69c | 259.66$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 251.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.13 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 11c | 248.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33a…fae1backed Yes | 48c | 207.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 51c | 205$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.45 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 201.01$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 48c | 200.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.15 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 42c | 193.06$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 71c | 188.99$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.42 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e91…11d7backed Yes | 39c | 180.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 161.02$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed No | 65c | 154.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.82 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 153$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 43c | 150.68$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 8c | 150.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x420d…544abacked Yes | 46c | 150$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 49c | 149.95$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.42 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 136.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 53c | 133.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 120.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 116.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 116$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…d88ebacked Yes | 36c | 110.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 39c | 107.31$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 48c | 101.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 101.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.45 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8d…3459backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 62cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…541bbacked No | 59c | 99.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 37c | 93.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…d640backed Yes | 12c | 88.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 87.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 54c | 87.45$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.54 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 56c | 81.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.32 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 14c | 81.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 77$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 36c | 71.96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb82…fa1dbacked Yes | 46c | 67.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 61c | 65.57$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 63.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked Yes | 23c | 61.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 27c | 59.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 46c | 58.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 46c | 58.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfa…014fbacked Yes | 44c | 57.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 51c | 55.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 73c | 55.88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 47c | 53.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 30c | 51.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe487…37c3backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd9…b83cbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +612.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 32c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 41c | 48.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828b…87a6backed No | 70c | 46.84$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 36c | 46.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 57c | 45.17$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 37c | 45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb58d…b858backed Yes | 43c | 44.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 64c | 43.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed Yes | 46c | 42.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f6…cd51backed Yes | 35c | 42.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…a13cbacked Yes | 49c | 42.36$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 69c | 37.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 36.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 49c | 36.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 52c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 33c | 31.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.