Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0523b760e695ecc95b9e1f7c56da5b6f7f310023ff907286cadda7b4e05bddd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,910
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,910 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked No | 2c | 1,110$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 5c | 895.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 25c | 610.31$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.44 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 46c | 453.54$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.79 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 423.82$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 41c | 321$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 45c | 310.44$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.12 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 42c | 306.64$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.7 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 24c | 249.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.63 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e0f…9a05backed No | 36c | 230.9$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 206 | 31.1%64 W · 142 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 44c | 228.9$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.82 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 52c | 206.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.37 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 202.87$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 40c | 200.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 200$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 42c | 198.44$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.44 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 197$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 34c | 178.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 41c | 175.8$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 46c | 150.52$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.88 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 142.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 55c | 139.19$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.61 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 42c | 130.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 41c | 120.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.6 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 117.99$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 43c | 112.31$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 110.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 108.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 106.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.14 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e91…11d7backed Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…978ebacked Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 51c | 98.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.94 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 36c | 94.62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 20c | 86.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed Yes | 43c | 80.28$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 79.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 47c | 78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed7b…7b92backed No | 57c | 74.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 57c | 70.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 59c | 70.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 242 | 38%92 W · 150 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 47c | 68.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 42c | 68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.44 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes | 75c | 66.85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 57c | 66.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 39c | 63.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 24c | 63.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 67.9%38 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 62.9$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 62c | 62.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 61.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes | 57c | 61.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 43c | 58.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf908…6718backed Yes | 43c | 58.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 33c | 55.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 34c | 54.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.76 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 59c | 52.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3f…a13cbacked Yes | 47c | 52.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 42c | 52.24$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 66c | 52.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.98 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 57c | 52.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 35c | 51.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 60c | 50.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9666…4753backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +150%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…4e79backed Yes | 41c | 48.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.38 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 45.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 44.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 70c | 40.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x506c…840cbacked Yes | 52c | 40.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…99acbacked Yes | 42c | 40.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc6…3bb9backed Yes | 44c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa4…5d6fbacked Yes | 39c | 37.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +171.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 35c | 36.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 60c | 35.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 58c | 33.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac44…f420backed Yes | 43c | 32.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 48c | 32.32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 68c | 32.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes | 43c | 31.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10ab…b2e8backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…b97abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 175 | 36.6%64 W · 111 L | +11.9wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.