TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,910
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,406

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,910 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3dd3…ccacbacked No2c1,110$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8634624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No5c895.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.782,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No25c610.31$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.444,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes46c453.54$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.791,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c423.82$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.998,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No41c321$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.344,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes45c310.44$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.124,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31dc…ce99backed Yes42c306.64$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.710427.9%29 W · 75 L-0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No24c249.29$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6360121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e0f…9a05backed No36c230.9$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.3720631.1%64 W · 142 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-11.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f3…9f82backed Yes44c228.9$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.821,45524.7%359 W · 1,096 L-33.3wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No52c206.97$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.371,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes39c202.87$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.057,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No40c200.12$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.952,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c200$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1211,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe57…3920backed Yes42c198.44$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.447832.1%25 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No57c197$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.565,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes34c178.62$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3273927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No41c175.8$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.33,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes46c150.52$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.8868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes35c142.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.341,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes55c139.19$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.613145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes42c130.84$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.982,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6aab…ead7backed Yes41c120.6$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.610141.6%42 W · 59 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No58c117.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.991,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes43c112.31$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5245236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c110.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0612,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes41c110$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.711343.4%49 W · 64 L-0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c108.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.383,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes38c106.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.141,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e91…11d7backed Yes42c105$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.551526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb501…9a53backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5817536%63 W · 112 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4de2…978ebacked Yes43c99.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.991637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37e7…4a56backed Yes51c98.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9411637.1%43 W · 73 L-5.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No36c94.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.341,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No20c86.37$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.534,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1c2…0c32backed Yes43c80.28$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.762356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c79.31$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.682,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No47c78$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.773,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed7b…7b92backed No57c74.76$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.614065%26 W · 14 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No57c70.17$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.192,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No59c70.14$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1842160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes46c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.824238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed No47c68.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.0431124.1%75 W · 236 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes42c68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.4410834.3%37 W · 71 L-0.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes75c66.85$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.851833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No57c66.55$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.932,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x420c…1f36backed Yes39c63.44$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.4429835.2%105 W · 193 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc3e…cefdbacked No24c63.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155667.9%38 W · 18 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No58c62.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.631,42058.7%833 W · 587 L+69.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed Yes62c62.28$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.830144.9%135 W · 166 L+16.3wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No38c61.99$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.311,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6f1b…8ad5backed Yes57c61.08$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.081540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes43c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.317838.8%69 W · 109 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xddbf…b1aebacked Yes44c60$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.65837.9%22 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6af…4219backed Yes43c58.66$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6650648.8%247 W · 259 L+25.1wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf908…6718backed Yes43c58.42$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.434148.8%20 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No38c56$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.542,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No33c55.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.382,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes34c54.53$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7643238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No59c52.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d39…099abacked No38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2029751.9%154 W · 143 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b3f…a13cbacked Yes47c52.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.52475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4818…e5debacked Yes42c52.24$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4931219.9%62 W · 250 L-40.4wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-59.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xc17e…906abacked Yes66c52.23$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9854043.9%237 W · 303 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No57c52.05$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…5577backed Yes35c51.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.3425038%95 W · 155 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No60c50.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1639157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes34c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3334934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9666…4753backed Yes40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2623436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf7c…b00dbacked No64c50$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3278663.6%500 W · 286 L-0.3wins0.00per pick64cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.520838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda58…4e79backed Yes41c48.38$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.382441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes34c45.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.394,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes32c44.55$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.3117,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No70c40.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4371464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x506c…840cbacked Yes52c40.45$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.4715152.3%79 W · 72 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf00e…99acbacked Yes42c40.29$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.372748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c70…edf3backed Yes40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2412539.2%49 W · 76 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc6…3bb9backed Yes44c40$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.513100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+88%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fa4…5d6fbacked Yes39c37.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes35c36.68$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.7165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea5e…a678backed Yes61c36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.91,21842%512 W · 706 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No60c35.27$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3344659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x879e…e339backed Yes46c34$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.417555.4%97 W · 78 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcca3…7450backed No58c33.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7242643.2%184 W · 242 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac44…f420backed Yes43c32.45$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.455147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No48c32.32$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.621,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No68c32.24$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9227669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd0d…df1ebacked Yes43c31.6$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.012433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No65c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.54,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.32,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ab…b2e8backed No56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.87040%28 W · 42 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.43,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecc6…b97abacked Yes40c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1817536.6%64 W · 111 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+31.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No61c30$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.33,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75f3…fe29backed No54c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1552155.3%288 W · 233 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.81,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.