UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf781a1f8d4355ba716677c967aeb3cab5c5e7b838f75348c623ce9807fa0885
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,350
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,350 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 32c | 14,407$4,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,606.06 | 162 | 44.4%72 W · 90 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c0…1bedbacked Under | 68c | 8,250$5,610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +32%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef4f…4598backed Under | 68c | 2,824$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$903.53 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2c…5280backed Under | 68c | 1,287$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 67c | 1,057$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.75 | 371 | 52.8%196 W · 175 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 29c | 664.94$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…b591backed Under | 71c | 516.61$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.61 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 69c | 499.98$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Over | 33c | 424.24$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b2…fb36backed Under | 68c | 422.4$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 69c | 315.9$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0f…9f36backed Under | 67c | 215.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Over | 31c | 204$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 68c | 203.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Over | 33c | 184$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Under | 68c | 176.47$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 33c | 155$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa7f…dc59backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…693cbacked Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8e…3dc3backed Over | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…f8acbacked Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3f…3c49backed Under | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 67c | 137.62$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Under | 68c | 114.94$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5055…17f8backed Under | 68c | 75.79$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb92…b1f8backed Over | 33c | 75.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x036d…7cd9backed Under | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…f356backed Under | 68c | 70.22$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9c…0f59backed Over | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…cdd1backed Under | 68c | 46.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0c…c1f2backed Under | 68c | 43$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Under | 71c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 14 | 100%14 W · 0 L | +5.9wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfff7…8028backed Over | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked Under | 70c | 39.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 68cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecb0…2329backed Over | 33c | 33.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37fd…9514backed Under | 71c | 31.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)Gilbert Urbina won
- Will Vlasto Cepo win by KO or TKO?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.