Everton vs. Newcastle: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb004badf9baeb99cb53035f902a6779e1466ffc06ecfc205b782891277b215

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Nov 29, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $53,017
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,017 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Premier League
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	48c	15,277$7,405 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,404.69	6,117	45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L	-28.6wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under	44c	13,636$6,009 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,009.46	2,661	45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L	-11.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over	52c	7,850$4,080 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,770.49	47	51.1%24 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3414…067abacked Over	51c	6,000$3,060 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,939.98	47	48.9%23 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe2b7…35d6backed Over	51c	5,235$2,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,565.29	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.49per pick	51cpaid	+96.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x010c…62bbbacked Over	50c	4,380$2,190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,190	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x011c…31dfbacked Over	52c	4,051$2,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,950.73	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf82e…5089backed Over	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,000	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	29c	1,703$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489.58	4,744	41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L	+28.2wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25e1…1046backed Under	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+97.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bcd…50f1backed Over	52c	884.62$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$424.62	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.48per pick	52cpaid	+92.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	51c	776.15$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.4	22	50%11 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Under	48c	637.35$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.93	248	46.8%116 W · 132 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda91…6cc9backed Over	52c	594.44$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$285.34	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+38.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Under	50c	500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	87	40.2%35 W · 52 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Over	50c	480.26$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.13	24	66.7%16 W · 8 L	+4.3wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+34%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed Under	50c	444$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222	215	48.8%105 W · 110 L	-5.8wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d1…7017backed Under	47c	300$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	53	47.2%25 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3893…6e0cbacked Over	52c	273.19$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$131.13	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe148…e9d0backed Under	50c	272$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c2…e0cfbacked Under	38c	244.05$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc15d…6a7cbacked Over	52c	206.1$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.93	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	373	42.6%159 W · 214 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfe…8aaebacked Under	52c	190.38$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3b…5a53backed Over	53c	188.68$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.68	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	61cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over	52c	134.62$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.62	59	22%13 W · 46 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x655d…b758backed Over	52c	108.06$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.17	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	49cpaid	+42%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Over	49c	107.01$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.57	370	36.2%134 W · 236 L	-18.1wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	50c	106.6$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	1,006	46.6%469 W · 537 L	-20.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2b6…032cbacked Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	40%8 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9453…22cfbacked Over	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	114	48.2%55 W · 59 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Over	49c	99.96$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.98	179	55.3%99 W · 80 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Over	48c	99$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.48	1,212	41.7%505 W · 707 L	-1.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	80c	82.59$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.58	1,004	46.3%465 W · 539 L	+25.8wins	+0.03per pick	44cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Over	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	143	51%73 W · 70 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Under	51c	78.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	279	55.9%156 W · 123 L	+6.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee09…1199backed Under	37c	65.38$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	63	58.7%37 W · 26 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Under	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	420	48.6%204 W · 216 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19bc…7d78backed Under	50c	59.36$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.73	126	46.8%59 W · 67 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Under	51c	58.82$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	495	44.2%219 W · 276 L	-20.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Under	26c	57.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.07	58	60.3%35 W · 23 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Over	48c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26	105	52.4%55 W · 50 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34da…367fbacked Under	49c	50$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	47	42.6%20 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Under	47c	49.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.14	259	49.4%128 W · 131 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c87…70d5backed Under	50c	48.2$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	292	38.4%112 W · 180 L	-9.9wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Over	54c	44.44$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.44	51	58.8%30 W · 21 L	+4.1wins	+0.08per pick	51cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Under	46c	44.44$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	63	50.8%32 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52bd…1a8abacked Under	49c	41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.09	68	45.6%31 W · 37 L	-7.4wins	-0.11per pick	56cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1612…9dedbacked Under	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x433a…e3d9backed Over	51c	38.84$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.84	65	66.2%43 W · 22 L	+5.7wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a2e…6200backed Under	26c	38.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.02	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	41cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.04	65	53.8%35 W · 30 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93d1…9daebacked Under	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac7a…414fbacked Under	48c	31.49$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.11	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x423d…c621backed Over	48c	31.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	158	66.5%105 W · 53 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	65cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85a4…7412backed Over	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a96…e12fbacked Under	49c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	54cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe169…87c9backed Over	52c	24.17$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7279…a05cbacked Over	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.10per pick	55cpaid	-15%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x31ed…09dabacked Over	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Under	51c	19.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.19	410	40.5%166 W · 244 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Everton vs. Newcastle: O/U 2.5this page
Everton vs. Newcastle: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
Everton vs. Newcastle: O/U 1.5Over won
Everton vs. Newcastle: O/U 3.5Over won
Spread: Newcastle (-1.5)Newcastle won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Everton vs. Newcastle: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event