MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb9ef3fd73781ff9993edd657b8eb36be6dcd52dc0700df97234c01d01cc722
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 5,687$3,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,622.63 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 45c | 3,298$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.91 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Miami Marlins | 59c | 2,160$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,273.3 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 1,824$1,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$673.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Miami Marlins | 62c | 1,637$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.18 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 1,442$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Miami Marlins | 50c | 505.25$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.64 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 499.99$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.76 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 463.63$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.52 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 400.96$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.09 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 43c | 290.57$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.63 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 199.45$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Miami Marlins | 45c | 184.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.98 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 179.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 55c | 163.62$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Miami Marlins | 53c | 141.03$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.08 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 138.79$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 127.74$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 125.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 58c | 116.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Miami Marlins | 51c | 108$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Miami Marlins | 63c | 104.52$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.8 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 78.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 50c | 68.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 58.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Miami Marlins | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Miami Marlins | 33c | 40.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Baltimore Orioles | 36c | 37.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Miami Marlins | 43c | 36.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 34.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 33c | 33.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 30.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83de…1786backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 23.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Miami Marlins | 78c | 17.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 15.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.