MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3007a22707387472c369516e729cb8e571cace2a8554e5c733b129510ebc5ccc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Miami Marlins, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 2,969$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$784.07 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Miami Marlins | 24c | 2,511$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.58 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 2,117$1,313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.46 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 1,735$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.5 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 1,500$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 1,078 | 48.1%518 W · 560 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 1,206$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.52 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 1,012$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.23 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 919.98$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.59 | 575 | 51.7%297 W · 278 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 689.99$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.1 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 600$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.6 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81b0…858cbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 576.92$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 205 | 52.7%108 W · 97 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 424.25$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.43 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 383.64$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.77 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 30c | 337.56$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.66 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e9…1c08backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 300$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 210.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 799 | 43.2%345 W · 454 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Miami Marlins | 13c | 181.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Miami Marlins | 17c | 177.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Miami Marlins | 29c | 174.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 13c | 169.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Miami Marlins | 36c | 163.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Miami Marlins | 40c | 126.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 119.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 111.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 293 | 54.9%161 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 96.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Miami Marlins | 13c | 89.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 87.32$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 83.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 82.57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 60.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 52.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 49.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 40.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Miami Marlins | 32c | 39.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabc1…eaa0backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 39.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 36.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Miami Marlins | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 34.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cfd…ba99backed Miami Marlins | 39c | 28.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 58c | 26.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Baltimore Orioles | 71c | 18.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 17.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsBaltimore Orioles won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 12.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 15.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.