Movies · resolved market
Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe05b642d2bbb406bb966b67222363f3388089abdde487ae7fe37bb7219bf370b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,845
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfe7…324dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,933$2,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.74 | 89 | 30.3%27 W · 62 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed No | 1c | 2,397$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 61c | 2,177$1,333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.06 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 62c | 1,525$946 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$578.97 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 41c | 804$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.36 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed No | 25c | 692$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x520d…babebacked Yes | 69c | 484.7$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.7 | 113 | 52.2%59 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 16c | 399.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278f…715fbacked Yes | 69c | 320$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 15c | 299.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 16c | 257.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.01 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 18c | 202.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 13c | 176$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed Yes | 62c | 160.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 6c | 156.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 145 | 5.5%8 W · 137 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 15c | 122.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.13 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb45…cd33backed Yes | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 46c | 66.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 74c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 53c | 26.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?this page
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?No won
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?No won
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.