Movies · resolved market
Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf16a7232fd8973cc2ce3ad8a6db196c6cf55bc55b301c49e35a5a96e28a87419
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,723
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,723 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked No | 36c | 7,256$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,678.19 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 27c | 4,485$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.15 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53a4…4447backed Yes | 73c | 4,134$3,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,013.49 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…601abacked Yes | 14c | 4,093$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 9c | 3,599$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.08 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked Yes | 52c | 2,624$1,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,368.98 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 8c | 2,333$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.83 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.94 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 46c | 1,316$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.01 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed Yes | 68c | 1,250$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed Yes | 14c | 1,235$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.45 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 63c | 1,196$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.24 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed Yes | 33c | 1,115$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.65 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed No | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 2c | 987.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 260 | 41.2%107 W · 153 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Yes | 19c | 637.22$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…ee61backed Yes | 4c | 608.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 29 | 10.3%3 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 66c | 561.63$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.8 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…5eddbacked Yes | 19c | 551.88$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.66 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 75c | 479.3$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.23 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 71c | 470.92$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.28 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 11c | 409.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…ddb8backed Yes | 76c | 373.63$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.09 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…b952backed Yes | 35c | 333$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.55 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 12c | 297.23$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb45…cd33backed Yes | 43c | 274.11$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 225.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 1,393 | 8%111 W · 1,282 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8f…3c8abacked Yes | 77c | 220.35$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 24c | 215.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.59 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 10c | 188.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 9c | 183.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…5c3abacked Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…4914backed Yes | 18c | 84.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…e242backed No | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc707…bd1fbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b84…3de9backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 46c | 52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…68c5backed Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 75c | 24.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd453…75ebbacked Yes | 65c | 18.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 3.5m?this page
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m?No won
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m?Yes won
- Will "A Big Bold Beautiful Journey" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 2.5m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.