World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe09a02d548c4f14f226dee31034cbf39937295f3ab7abe9d0c6476c94ab2fe50
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 3c | 772.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 65c | 500.18$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.39 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.28per pick | 60cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 403.24$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.86 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 23c | 181.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.49 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 32c | 160.95$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.13 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 151.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 77c | 129$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 34c | 126.07$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 95.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 41c | 88.94$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.86 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 80.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 26c | 75.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.76 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 33c | 65.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 51c | 62.68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 64c | 61.43$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 26c | 60.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 41c | 52.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d55…b4c1backed Yes | 26c | 43.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +284.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 25c | 40.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 37.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 76c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 65c | 29.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…e329backed Yes | 74c | 29.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 73c | 28.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 24.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 150 | 76%114 W · 36 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 77c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc017…c979backed Yes | 62c | 19.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e54…7986backed No | 66c | 16.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 74c | 13.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0d…8f33backed No | 75c | 13.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 78c | 13.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.