World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe56efa03f8f2a8b04b4bfd06882cce1b7b74594e3df980d31bfa8b9e51e70e97
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,333
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 1c | 2,123$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 420.67$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.15 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 60c | 311.66$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.3 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 246.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 40 | 5%2 W · 38 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 53c | 148.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 36c | 132.03$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.89 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28c0…8eeebacked Yes | 64c | 129.42$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 58c | 101.85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +124.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 49c | 99.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 43c | 98.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 72c | 92.03$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 54c | 87.11$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 38c | 87.04$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 27c | 66.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.01 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 65.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 51c | 64.23$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 47c | 64.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.12 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 42c | 59.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 59c | 52.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…8ca0backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 45c | 49.91$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f4…c2eabacked No | 43c | 48.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab8…a59fbacked Yes | 50c | 47.62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 61c | 45.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 51c | 38.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 39c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 46c | 31.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 50c | 28.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 55c | 28.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 73c | 28.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa921…f0eabacked No | 52c | 25.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eaa…3561backed No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 60c | 23.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 50c | 22.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaff…5f75backed Yes | 49c | 22.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 48c | 21.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 55c | 20.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 62c | 20.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 64 | 62.5%40 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c5…7f34backed Yes | 67c | 20.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.6wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 73c | 20.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 72cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 79c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…2ebfbacked Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on May 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.